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ATMOSPHERIC MODEL EVALUATION
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Impact/Purpose:
The goal of this task is to thoroughly characterize the performance of the emissions, meteorological and chemical/transport modeling components of the Models-3 system, with an emphasis on the chemical/transport model, CMAQ. Emissions-based models are composed of highly complex scientific hypotheses concerning natural processes that can be evaluated through comparison with observations, but not validated. Both performance and diagnostic evaluation together with sensitivity analyses are needed to establish credibility and build confidence within the client and scientific community in the simulations results for policy and scientific applications. The characterization of the performance of Models-3/CMAQ is also a tool for the model developers to identify aspects of the modeling system that require further improvement.
Description:
Evaluation of the Models-3/CMAQ is conducted in this task. The focus is on evaluation of ozone, other photochemical oxidants, and fine particles using data from both routine monitoring networks and special, intensive field programs. Two types of evaluations are performed here: performance (operational) evaluations and diagnostic evaluations. In performance (operational) testing modeled pollutant concentrations of regulatory interest are compared to observations (right answer). Diagnostic testing examines the model's capability to simulate processes that affect the results (right answer for right reason). Model sensitivity analyses to characterize model response to uncertainties are also conducted in this task with an emphasis on characterizing the response to emissions reductions or the control response. Model evaluation technique development for more advanced performance statistics and diagnostic model evaluation procedures are conducted in this task as well. Specific, enduring research elements include ADP and GIS support, model evaluation data generation, model evaluation technique development (diagnostic techniques and space-time techniques), performance/diagnostic model evaluation studies, and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. Research sections with tasks and objectives are developed under each of the research elements.
Record Details:
Record Type:PROJECTKeywords:
AIR QUALITY MODELING, OZONE, FINE PARTICULATE, PARTICULATE MATTER, MULTISCALE MODELING, MODEL EVALUATION, AIR TOXICS,Related Records:
MODELS-3/CMAQ APPLICATIONS WHICH ILLUSTRATE CAPABILITY AND FUNCTIONALITYRelationship Reason:MODELS-3/CMAQ APPLICATIONS WHICH ILLUSTRATE CAPABILITY AND FUNCTIONALITY60426DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
EXAMINATION OF MODEL PREDICTIONS AT DIFFERENT HORIZONTAL GRID RESOLUTIONS
Relationship Reason:EXAMINATION OF MODEL PREDICTIONS AT DIFFERENT HORIZONTAL GRID RESOLUTIONS105199DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
ASSESSING THE COMPARABILITY OF AMMONIUM, NITRATE AND SULFATE CONCENTRATIONS MEASURED BY THREE AIR QUALITY MONITORING NETWORKS
Relationship Reason:ASSESSING THE COMPARABILITY OF AMMONIUM, NITRATE AND SULFATE CONCENTRATIONS MEASURED BY THREE AIR QUALITY MONITORING NETWORKS104794DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ABILITY OF 3-D AIR QUALITY MODELS WITH CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC EQUILIBRIUM MODELS TO PREDICT AEROSOL NO3
Relationship Reason:AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ABILITY OF 3-D AIR QUALITY MODELS WITH CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC EQUILIBRIUM MODELS TO PREDICT AEROSOL NO3104725DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
A PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE 2004 RELEASE OF MODELS-3 CMAQ
Relationship Reason:A PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE 2004 RELEASE OF MODELS-3 CMAQ89740DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
A PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE ETA - CMAQ QUALITY FORECAST MODEL
Relationship Reason:A PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE ETA - CMAQ QUALITY FORECAST MODEL89737DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
TESTING PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY SENSITIVITIES IN THE U.S. EPA COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM (CMAQ)
Relationship Reason:TESTING PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY SENSITIVITIES IN THE U.S. EPA COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM (CMAQ)88697DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
OBJECTIVE REDUCTION OF THE SPACE-TIME DOMAIN DIMENSIONALITY FOR EVALUATING MODEL PERFORMANCE
Relationship Reason:OBJECTIVE REDUCTION OF THE SPACE-TIME DOMAIN DIMENSIONALITY FOR EVALUATING MODEL PERFORMANCE88696DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
A PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE ETA 3 CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL
Relationship Reason:A PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE ETA 3 CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL88583DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
SEASONAL AND REGIONAL VARIATIONS OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOLS OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES: OBSERVATION-BASED ESTIMATES AND MODEL EVALUATION
Relationship Reason:SEASONAL AND REGIONAL VARIATIONS OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOLS OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES: OBSERVATION-BASED ESTIMATES AND MODEL EVALUATION88423DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
TEMPORAL SIGNATURES OF AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL OUTPUTS: DO TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITION METHODS CAPTURE RELEVANT TIME SCALES?
Relationship Reason:TEMPORAL SIGNATURES OF AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL OUTPUTS: DO TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITION METHODS CAPTURE RELEVANT TIME SCALES?88419DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
SEASONAL NH 3 EMISSIONS FOR ANNUAL 2001 CMAQ SIMULATION: INVERSE MODEL ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION
Relationship Reason:SEASONAL NH 3 EMISSIONS FOR ANNUAL 2001 CMAQ SIMULATION: INVERSE MODEL ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION88417DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
AN ANNUAL EVALUATION OF THE 2004 RELEASE OF MODELS-3 CMAQ
Relationship Reason:AN ANNUAL EVALUATION OF THE 2004 RELEASE OF MODELS-3 CMAQ88385DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
HIGH TIME-RESOLVED COMPARISONS FOR IN-DEPTH PROBING OF CMAQ FINE-PARTICLE AND GAS PREDICTIONS
Relationship Reason:HIGH TIME-RESOLVED COMPARISONS FOR IN-DEPTH PROBING OF CMAQ FINE-PARTICLE AND GAS PREDICTIONS88381DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
COMPARISON OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF POLLUTANT DISTRIBUTION WITH CMAQ PREDICTIONS
Relationship Reason:COMPARISON OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF POLLUTANT DISTRIBUTION WITH CMAQ PREDICTIONS88376DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
DIAGNOSTIC EVALUATION OF CMAQ RESPONSE OF INORGANIC FINE PARTICULATE SPECIES OF EMISSIONS CHANGES
Relationship Reason:DIAGNOSTIC EVALUATION OF CMAQ RESPONSE OF INORGANIC FINE PARTICULATE SPECIES OF EMISSIONS CHANGES88338DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
A CHEMICAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH CMAQ: DIAGNOSTIC TESTING IN BASE CASE AND CONTROL STRATEGIES IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
Relationship Reason:A CHEMICAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH CMAQ: DIAGNOSTIC TESTING IN BASE CASE AND CONTROL STRATEGIES IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S.88336DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
A BAYESIAN STATISTICAL APPROACHES FOR THE EVALUATION OF CMAQ
Relationship Reason:A BAYESIAN STATISTICAL APPROACHES FOR THE EVALUATION OF CMAQ88225DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
HIGH TIME-RESOLVED COMPARISONS FOR IN-DEPTH PROBING OF CMAQ FINE-PARTICLES AND GAS PREDICTIONS
Relationship Reason:HIGH TIME-RESOLVED COMPARISONS FOR IN-DEPTH PROBING OF CMAQ FINE-PARTICLES AND GAS PREDICTIONS87315DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
EVALUATION OF PREDICTED VISUAL RANGE USING THE COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM
Relationship Reason:EVALUATION OF PREDICTED VISUAL RANGE USING THE COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM86501DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOLS OVER THE UNITED STATES: ESTIMATES ON THE BASIS OF OBSERVED ORGANIC CARBON (OC) AND ELEMENTAL CARBON (EC), AND AIR QUALITY MODELED PRIMARY (OC/EC) RATIOS
Relationship Reason:PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOLS OVER THE UNITED STATES: ESTIMATES ON THE BASIS OF OBSERVED ORGANIC CARBON (OC) AND ELEMENTAL CARBON (EC), AND AIR QUALITY MODELED PRIMARY (OC/EC) RATIOS85960DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
COMPARISON OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF POLLUTANT DISTRIBUTION WITH CMAQ PREDICTIONS
Relationship Reason:COMPARISON OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF POLLUTANT DISTRIBUTION WITH CMAQ PREDICTIONS85825DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
(PRESENTED IN ALBERTA, CANADA) A PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE 2004 RELEASE OF MODELS-3 CMAQ
Relationship Reason:(PRESENTED IN ALBERTA, CANADA) A PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE 2004 RELEASE OF MODELS-3 CMAQ85413DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
COMPARISONS OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF WET DEPOSITION TO MODEL PREDICTIONS
Relationship Reason:COMPARISONS OF SPATIAL PATTERNS OF WET DEPOSITION TO MODEL PREDICTIONS85202DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
COMPARISON OF SULFATE CONCENTRATIONS SIMULATED BY TWO REGIONAL-SCALE MODELS WITH MEASUREMENTS FROM THE IMPROVE NETWORK
Relationship Reason:COMPARISON OF SULFATE CONCENTRATIONS SIMULATED BY TWO REGIONAL-SCALE MODELS WITH MEASUREMENTS FROM THE IMPROVE NETWORK85111DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
SEASONAL NH3 EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BASED ON AMMONIUM WET CONCENTRATIONS AND AN INVERSE MODELING METHOD
Relationship Reason:SEASONAL NH3 EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BASED ON AMMONIUM WET CONCENTRATIONS AND AN INVERSE MODELING METHOD84365DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
AN ANNUAL EVALUATION OF MODELS-3 CMAQ USING A 2001 SIMULATION
Relationship Reason:AN ANNUAL EVALUATION OF MODELS-3 CMAQ USING A 2001 SIMULATION83054DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
COMPARISON OF CMAQ AND AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTHS FROM SATELLITES
Relationship Reason:COMPARISON OF CMAQ AND AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTHS FROM SATELLITES83053DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
TIME-RESOLVED AND IN-DEPTH EVALUATION OF PM AND PM PRECURSORS USING CMAQ
Relationship Reason:TIME-RESOLVED AND IN-DEPTH EVALUATION OF PM AND PM PRECURSORS USING CMAQ82377DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
NONSTATIONARY SPATIAL MODELING OF ENVIRONMENTAL DATA USING A PROCESS CONVOLUTION APPROACH
Relationship Reason:NONSTATIONARY SPATIAL MODELING OF ENVIRONMENTAL DATA USING A PROCESS CONVOLUTION APPROACH76260DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
DIAGNOSTIC EVALUATION OF NUMBERICAL AIR QUALITY MODELS WITH SPECIALIZED AMBIENT OBSERVATIONS: TESTING THE COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM (CMAQ) AT SELECTED SOS 95 GROUND SITES
Relationship Reason:DIAGNOSTIC EVALUATION OF NUMBERICAL AIR QUALITY MODELS WITH SPECIALIZED AMBIENT OBSERVATIONS: TESTING THE COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM (CMAQ) AT SELECTED SOS 95 GROUND SITES75830DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AGGREGATION AND EPISODE SELECTION SCHEME TO SUPPORT THE MODELS-3 COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY MODEL
Relationship Reason:DEVELOPMENT OF AN AGGREGATION AND EPISODE SELECTION SCHEME TO SUPPORT THE MODELS-3 COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY MODEL75825DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
NONLINEARITIES IN THE SULFATE SECONDARY FINE PARTICULATE RESPONSE TO NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AS MODELED BY THE REGIONAL ACID DEPOSITION MODEL
Relationship Reason:NONLINEARITIES IN THE SULFATE SECONDARY FINE PARTICULATE RESPONSE TO NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AS MODELED BY THE REGIONAL ACID DEPOSITION MODEL63996DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
A PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF MODELS-3 CMAQ USING VISIBILITY PARAMETERS
Relationship Reason:A PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF MODELS-3 CMAQ USING VISIBILITY PARAMETERS63993DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
ESTABLISHMENT OF A COMMUNITY MODELING AND ANALYSIS SUPPORT MECHANISM
Relationship Reason:ESTABLISHMENT OF A COMMUNITY MODELING AND ANALYSIS SUPPORT MECHANISM63961DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
A PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF MODELS-3 CMAQ USING PARTICULATE MATTER DATA FROM THE IMPROVE NETWORK
Relationship Reason:A PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF MODELS-3 CMAQ USING PARTICULATE MATTER DATA FROM THE IMPROVE NETWORK63852DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
THE CLIMATE-AIR QUALITY SCALE CONTINUUM AND THE GLOBAL EMISSION INVENTORY ACTIVITY
Relationship Reason:THE CLIMATE-AIR QUALITY SCALE CONTINUUM AND THE GLOBAL EMISSION INVENTORY ACTIVITY63807DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
FIRST RESULTS FROM OPERATIONAL TESTING OF THE U.S. EPA MODELS-3 COMMUNITY MULTISCALE MODEL FOR AIR QUALITY (CMAQ)
Relationship Reason:FIRST RESULTS FROM OPERATIONAL TESTING OF THE U.S. EPA MODELS-3 COMMUNITY MULTISCALE MODEL FOR AIR QUALITY (CMAQ)63795DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
AN AGGREGATION AND EPISODE SELECTION SCHEME FOR EPA'S MODELS-3 CMAQ
Relationship Reason:AN AGGREGATION AND EPISODE SELECTION SCHEME FOR EPA'S MODELS-3 CMAQ63577DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
MODELS-3 INSTALLATION PROCEDURES FOR A PERSONAL COMPUTER WITH A NT OPERATING SYSTEM (MODELS-3 VERSION 4.1)
Relationship Reason:MODELS-3 INSTALLATION PROCEDURES FOR A PERSONAL COMPUTER WITH A NT OPERATING SYSTEM (MODELS-3 VERSION 4.1)63315DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
INTER-SITE COMPARISON OF AMBIENT AEROSOLS IN THE HOUSTON AREA DURING TEXAQS-2000
Relationship Reason:INTER-SITE COMPARISON OF AMBIENT AEROSOLS IN THE HOUSTON AREA DURING TEXAQS-200062338DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
INVERSE MODELING TO ESTIMATE NH3 EMISSION SEASONALLY AND THE SENSITIVITY TO UNCERTAINTY REPRESENTATIONS
Relationship Reason:INVERSE MODELING TO ESTIMATE NH3 EMISSION SEASONALLY AND THE SENSITIVITY TO UNCERTAINTY REPRESENTATIONS61451DOCUMENT1.0A PRODUCT OF THE PROJECTREVIEWEDPUBLICORDNERL
Project Information:
Progress :Three major model evaluation series and one model checkout series have been run to support the model evaluation tasks. First, a series of air quality simulations has been performed with CMAQ for the eastern U.S. with nested grid resolutions of 36-, 12-, and 4-km cell size, for the period of July 2-19, 1995 and at 36-km resolution for June 1995. Results of comparisons with AIRS, PAMS and NARSTO-NE data showed the CMAQ to be performing at least comparably well to other contemporary ozone models. A briefing on the results was given to the OAQPS director and his staff on July 20, 2000. The July 1995 CMAQ simulations were also used for initial comparisons of visibility data as well as IMPROVE data in the eastern U.S. Preliminary results with the visibility data indicate that the model is performing acceptably well. Preliminary comparisons with speciated fine particle IMPROVE data for June 1995 indicate the model is performing well for sulfate, but not well for organic fine particulates. The new checkout runs, comparing old science and new science, showed the organic fine particulate predictions are significantly improved with the new aerosol module in the 2002 release of CMAQ. Second, a series of air quality simulations has been performed with CMAQ for the eastern U.S. with grid resolution of 36-km cell size, for the months of January, March, April, May, June, July, August, and October 1990. Inverse modeling for ammonia was conducted for these months which showed ammonia emissions should have a very strong seasonality. Results also showed that errors in ammonia emissions can have severe impacts on nitrate particle predictions. A study of the source of the nonlinear response of sulfate to the 1995 reduction in SO2 emisisons was presented at the NARSTO International Symposium in Queretaro, Mexico. Third, a checkout serous of air quality simulations has been performed comparing the older science with the new science in the 2002 release of CMAQ. The simulation were for the continental U.S. with a grid resolution of 32-km for July 3-14, 1999 and for the southeastern U.S. with grid resolutions of 8-, and 2-km cell size for July 3-9, 1999. Preliminary results are that the good performance for sulfate maintains, there are issues with predictions for nitrate aerosol, and the predictions for organic fine partiulates and elemental carbon have improved substantially. The ozone predictions with the new science are modestly higher than the predictions with the older science. Fourth, a series of air quality simulations has just been completed with the 2002 version of CMAQ for the continental U.S. with a grid resolution of 32-km and for the southeastern U.S. with a grid resolution of 8-km for June 15 - August 31, 1999 with two 2-km nests over Nashville, TN and Atlanta, GA for June 15 - July 15, 1999.Gipson, G. Process analysis. In Science algorithms of the EPA Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. Part II: Chapters 9-18. D.W. Byun and J.K.S. Ching (Eds.). EPA-600/R-99/030, National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, 16-1-16-19 (1999).
Cohn, R., B. K. Eder and S. K. LeDuc. Science Algorithms of the EPA MODELS-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System, Chapter 17: An aggregation and episode selection scheme designed to support Models-3 CMAQ, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Report EPA/600/R/99/030, Research Triangle Park, NC, 63 pp (1999).
Dennis, R.L., J.R. Arnold, G.S. Tonnesen, Y. Li. A new response surface approach for interpreting Eulerian air quality model sensitivities. Computer Physics Communications 117: 99-112 (1999).
Luecken, D.J., G.S. Tonnesen, J.E. Sickles, II. Differences in NOY speciation predicted by three photochemical mechanisms. Atmospheric Environment 33: 1073-1084 (1999).
Tonnesen, G.S. Effects of uncertainty in the reaction of the hydroxyl radical with nitrog
Relevance :The Models-3/CMAQ air quality modeling system is being used for research and regulatory analyses by EPA and other groups. Confidence in the use of this modeling system by the user community is largely built through evaluation exercises such as those conducted in this task. Model evaluation therefore is a key component in the research conducted with the CMAQ and related models and a key component supporting APGs associated with developing modeling tools for Goal 1 objectives.
Clients :Joseph Tikvart, Peter Tsirigotis, John Bachmann - OAR/OAQPS
Project IDs:
ID Code :3874Project type :OMIS