Impact/Purpose:

This research project sets out to design and conduct an assessment of the long-term ecological consequences of alternative management choices. As the first project to be done at this scale using predictive ecological endpoints, we will seek to identify the appropriate components of such an analysis. We will use experience gained in the conduct of this BASE analysis to identify key research and data needs for address, to estimate timing, resource needs, etc., for future analyses. We will extend this analysis beyond previous and ongoing studies in two ways: by incorporating biological endpoints, primarily properties of fish communities, and by introducing the concept of sustainability of ecological state under future scenarios contrasted with the present state of those same ecological resources. Requirements that are identified during the course of this study will permit the recommendation of specific capabilities that should be incorporated in a general modeling system currently under development to support BASE and other environmental assessments. Finally, the analysis is intended to be of value for establishing environmental management choices that will be beneficial and those that would be detrimental to the sustainability of ecological resources of the Albemarle-Pamlico Basin.

Description:

The need for multi-media, multi-stressor, and multi-response models for ecological assessment is widely acknowledged. Assessments at this level of complexity have not been conducted, and therefore pilot assessments are required to identify the critical concepts, models, data, and procedures. Assessments will generally focus on the identification of acceptable management choices that will ensure the sustainability of specific, selected ecosystems. This research will use the concept of contrasting the present state of ecosystems with projected future states under a range of future stress-management scenarios as measures of vulnerability and sustainability. Initially, interest will be confined to the sustainability of fish populations and communities as indicated by projections for the future scenarios. Because this analysis attempts to project future stressors and future responses, predictive models are required. For this pilot project, we will build on existing models to obtain the required analytical and predictive capability. For future analyses, the needs of this and other ongoing projects will be met by a general model to support large-scale environmental and ecological assessments. This project will contribute to the form and content of that general model.

Record Details:

Record Type:PROJECT

Start Date:12/05/2000

Completion Date:09/30/2001

OMB Category:Other

Record ID: 56135

Show Additional Record Data

Project Information:

Progress :Most of the models required for the analysis exist in a relatively mature state. A contract task to obtain data to be used for initializing the models, provide boundary conditions, and to parameterize the models is starting-up in FY 2001. The research subtasks have been grouped into four working groups (1 - Scenarios, 2 - Hydrology, hydrodynamics, and water quality, 3 - Fish, and 4 - Computations and Interfacing). These groups correspond to major steps in the conduct of the of the project. A preliminary fish response model, including hydrology and suspended sediments has been tested on a set of data at the watershed scale (Contentnea). A basin-scale assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic stress on fish communities also has been completed. A cooperative agreement with a STAR grant recipient has been established to provide future scenarios of population and landuse characteristics (e.g. impervious surfaces).

NERL/ERD ABSTRCT/ORAL:

03-FEB-00 Baca, R.M. Fish communities and human disturbance in the Albemarle-Pamlico Basin of North Carolina and Virginia. Abstract presented at: Ecological Society of America Meeting, Snowbird, UT, August 6-10, 2000.

09-MAR-00 Rashleigh, B., and Grossman, G. An individual-based model of Cottus population dynamics. EEEF 2000 Meeting, Athens, GA, May 20-24, 2000.

03-JAN-01Baca, R.M. The influence of ecological and anthropogenic factors on patterns in the fish communities of the Albemarle-Pamlico Basin. Abstract presented at: Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society, Phoenix, AZ, August 19-23, 2001.

18-OCT-00Rashleigh, B. Effects of habitat degradation on biological endpoints in the South Fork Broad river basin, Georgia. Abstract presented at: Georgia Water Resources Conference, Athens, GA, March 26-27, 2001.

21-FEB-01Loux, N.T. Effective acidity constant behavior near zero charge conditions. Abstract presented at: 222nd American Chemical Society National Meeting, Chicago, IL, August 26-30, 2001.

26-MAR-01Johnston, J.M., and Crossley, Jr., D.A. Neglected components of biodiversity: soil oribatid mites, community structure and soil recovery. Abstract presented at: Soil Ecology Society Conference, Pine Mountain, GA, May 20-23, 2001.

30-JAN-01Wright, C.J., and Alberty, S.W. Characterization of land use in riparian areas within the Contentnea watershed of North Carolina. Abstract presented at: Ecological Society of America Meeting, Madison, WI, August 5-10, 2001.

25-JAN-01Rashleigh, B., and Johnston, J.M. Simulation coastal plain stream fish community response to nonpoint source pollution using linked hydrologic-ecological models. Abstract presented at: Ecological Society of America Meeting, Madison, WI, August 5-10, 2001.

INTERNAL:

21-JAN-00 Johnston, J.M. Ecological research integration in ORD: report of a workshop.

JOURNAL:

27-OCT-99 Baca, R.M., and Threlkeld,S.T. Inland dissolved salt chemistry: statistical evaluation of bivariate and rernary diagram models. Published in: Journal of Limnology 59(2):156-166. 2000.

30-MAY-00 Loux, N.T. Monitoring cyclical air-water elemental mercury exchange. Published in: Journal of Environmental Monitoring 3(1):43-48. 2001.

04-APR-01 Rashleigh, B., and Hampson, P.S. Relation of landscape-scale environmental characteristics to fish assemblages in the upper French Broad River basin, North Carolina. Submitted to: Environmental Biology of Fishes.

MANUAL:



24-MAY-01 Barber, M.C. Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) user's manual beta test version 2.1. EPA 600/R-01/035. 2001.



Relevance :This research brings ecological analysis, sustainability analysis, and landscape influences together for the first time. Environmental concern is primarily ecological concern, and in the past regulations that have been implemented to protect ecological resources have done so with implicit connection to the natural communities of organisms. This analysis begins to make this connection explicit. Sustainability of ecological resources is the goal of all environmental management. This project initiates the use of the scenario in a present vs. future comparison, that gives quantitative meaning to the concept. In the analysis a large basin is viewed as consisting of a set of smaller sub-basins with their connectivity defined through the movement of water and materials. Land use and runoff is specific to the smaller component sub-basins, and therefore problems that occur in the basin can be connected to land-use practices that occur within the small sub-basins, rather than simply identified as a problem that exists within the region.

Clients :The major clients for this work will be the Office of Water, other program offices depending on the problems identified, EPA Region 4, and the states of North Carolina and Virginia.

Project IDs:

ID Code :3744

Project type :OMIS