Science Inventory

THE VISUAL BEACH NUMERICAL MODEL: A DIAGNOSTIC AND PROGNOSTIC MODELING APPROACH TO ACHIEVING US BEACHES AESTHETIC AND PUBLIC HEALTH PROTECTION

Impact/Purpose:

A main objective of this task is to combine empirical and physical mechanisms in a model, known as Visual Beach, that

  • is user-friendly
  • includes point and non-point sources of contamination
  • includes the latest bacterial decay mechanisms
  • incorporates real-time and web-based ambient and atmospheric and aquatic conditions
  • and has a predictive capability of up to three days to help avert potential beach closures.
The suite of predictive capabilities for this software application can enhance the utility of new methodology for analysis of indicator pathogens by identifying times that represent the highest probability of bacterial contamination. Successful use of this model will provide a means to direct timely collection of monitoring samples, strengthening the value of the short turnaround time for sampling. Additionally, in some cases of known point sources of bacteria, such as waste water treatment plant discharges, the model can be applied to help guide operational controls to help prevent resulting beach closures.

Description:

Under the BEACH Act of 2000, EPA has committed to a program to monitor beach water quality and develop strategies, including modeling, for timely notification of the public when bacterial contamination poses a risk to bathers. EPA's goal is to manage 100% of significant public beaches by 2008, with the additional goal of making them swimmable 100% of the time. Relatively simple empirical methodologies based on important and common predictors, notably rainfall, are currently used for site-specific data analysis and prediction. Under this task such methods will be automated with software accessible to most small offices concerned with issuing beach advisories and closures. More sophisticated model development is also justified in part by the recognition that fewer than 50% of beach closings are significantly related to rainfall events (Dufour, personal communication). Thus, in collaboration with other organizations and consistent with the Act, both simple statistical techniques and complex hydrodynamical modeling approaches will be developed.

Record Details:

Record Type:PROJECT
Start Date:10/01/2002
Projected Completion Date:09/01/2006
OMB Category:Other
Record ID: 56125