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INTERACTION OF CLIMATE AND LAND USE IN FUTURE TERRESTRIAL CARBON STORAGE AND RELEASE
Citation:
Solomon, A., I. Prentice, R. Leemans, AND W. Cramer. INTERACTION OF CLIMATE AND LAND USE IN FUTURE TERRESTRIAL CARBON STORAGE AND RELEASE. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA/600/J-94/165 (NTIS PB94160512), 1993.
Description:
The processes controlling total carbon (C) storage and release from the terrestrial biosphere are still poorly quantified. e conclude from analysis of paleodata and climate biome model output that terrestrial C exchanges since the last glacial maximum (LGM) were dominated by slow processes of C sequestration in soils, possibly modified by C starvation and reduced water use efficiency of trees during the LGM. uman intrusion into the C cycle was immeasurably small. hese processes produced an averaged C sink in the terrestrial biosphere on the order of 0.05 Pg yr-1 during the past 10,000 years. n contrast, future C cycling will be dominated by human activities, not only from increasing C release with burning of fossil fuels, but also from indirect effects which increase C storage in the terrestrial biosphere and decrease C storage in the biosphere. omparison of the positive and negative C flux processes involved suggests that if the C sequestration processes are important, they likely will be so during the next few decades, gradually being counteracted by the C release processes. ased only on tabulating known or predated C flux effects of these processes, we could not determine if the earth will act as a significant C source from dominance by natural C cycle processes, or as a C sink made possible only by excellent earth stewardship in the next 50 to 100 years. ur subsequent analysis concentrated on recent estimates of C release from forest replacement by increased agriculture. Those results suggest that future agriculture may produce an additional 0.6 to 1.2 Pg yr-1 loss during the 50 to 100 years to O, doubling if the current ratio of farmed to potentially-farmed and is maintained; or a greater loss, up to a maximum of 1.4 to 2.8 Pg yr-1 if all potential agricultural land is farmed.