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DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS
Citation:
Robinson, P. AND P.L. Finkelstein. DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA/600/J-91/185 (NTIS PB91233486), 1991.
Description:
Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a temporal resolution of one day and a spatial resolution of around 100 km. cenarios should contain one or more of: 1) general descriptive statistics of the major climate elements, (2) information about climatic anomalies such as drought, (3) statistics on the frequency and probability of events exceeding particular thresholds, and (4) general synoptic information. echniques of climate analysis currently available were reviewed for their suitability to meet these scenario needs. he techniques were divided into a series of modules, groups of similar analysis techniques providing a scientifically sound piece of required information. eries of linked modules then provides the complete scenario. ne set of modules emphasizes process models, another set uses empirical analyses. he final set involves linkage between the other two. or each module the needs and opportunities for research directed towards scenario development are discussed.
