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Future Changes in Intensity and Frequency of Sub-daily and Daily Extreme Precipitation in the USFS Experimental Forests from Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Simulations. V2
Citation:
Jalowska, A., D. Amatya, S. Mukherjee, T. Spero, G. Gray, J. Bowden, M. Mallard, G. Tierney, AND J. Willison. Future Changes in Intensity and Frequency of Sub-daily and Daily Extreme Precipitation in the USFS Experimental Forests from Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Simulations. V2. Meeting, Durham, NC, December 01, 2022.
Impact/Purpose:
Abstract and presentation for the 103rd American Meteorological Society Meeting.
Description:
The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events and associated flooding has been recognized in the historical climate records and scientists and managers want to support flood adaptation efforts needed to address challenges in stormwater and transportation infrastructure redesign by using precipitation datasets from downscaled future global climate models (GCMs). This study used six dynamically downscaled (DD) GCM simulations from the CMIP5. Three DD simulations were produced at the U.S. EPA and three were sourced from the NA CORDEX and downscaled using the U.S. EPA’s Weather Research and Forecasting model. Additionally, statistically downscaled GCMs from the Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) and the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACAv2-METDATA) were analyzed to identify trends and uncertainties in precipitation extremes future intensity and frequency at ten USFS experimental forests to support further use of the downscaled data in stormwater infrastructure design. Preliminary analyses reveal significant differences in rainfall extremes magnitude and spatial distribution between the various GCMs and downscaling methods. We also found strong regional and altitude differences can be obscured in the ensemble average data. The simulations agree that the most dramatic future changes would affect the rarest events in thresholds above 98th percentile. However, the magnitude of changes is much higher in daily events than sub-daily events. In dry regions, increases in precipitation intensity of rare events are accompanied by decreasing intensity of the most common precipitation intensity events. A similar relationship was shown in southeast U.S. forest stations where the most common events at all duration are projected to decrease with an accompanying increasing trend in the frequency of the rarest events. The views expressed in this abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or USDA Forest Service. Any mention of trade names, products, or services does not imply an endorsement by the U.S. Government or the U.S. EPA. The EPA does not endorse any commercial products, services, or enterprises.