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Measuring increases in fire weather severity and its risk to human populations
Citation:
Jolly, M., A. Rappold, AND G. Peterson. Measuring increases in fire weather severity and its risk to human populations. Joint Statistical Meeting, Denver, Colorado, July 27 - August 01, 2019.
Impact/Purpose:
In this paper we characterize population size at risk to wildfires over time.
Description:
Wild fires have become more severe in the United States, representing a growing risk to human populations. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends in the Energy Release Component (ERC) to measure the hazard change of fire weather conditions. Between 1983 and 2016, fire weather conditions across the US have become hotter, drier, and last longer, with the largest increases in the Southwest, Intermountain, and Pacific Southwest regions. We further attribute the increased severity of large fires to the increased hazard, indicating how worsening peak fire season conditions led to 6.1 more fires each year and 78000 more acres burned each year. Finally, we analyzed hazard along Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) within Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) and determined that human population growth was larger in high hazard counties, implying significant fire risk for these growing communities. Disclaimer: The statements in this abstract do not reflect the views or policies of the US Environmental Protection Agency.