Citation:

Bowden, J., A. Terando, AND T. Spero. Watershed research and management in a changing climate Can mountainous terrain within Puerto Rico buffer the projected subtropical precipitation decline? Sixth Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds (ICRW), Shepherdstown, WV, July 23 - 26, 2018.

Impact/Purpose:

Presented at the 6th Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds

Description:

A robust response of global climate models (GCMs) in the coming decades to increasing greenhouse gases is a global decline in subtropical precipitation, particularly over the oceans. This is a concerning result for small island nations, especially those within the Caribbean, as the exposure to long-term drying will likely create significant stresses to already vulnerable ecosystems and water resources. However, climate change projections from GCMs cannot resolve the terrain and land use/land cover that interact with the prevailing trade winds to create sharp precipitation gradients over short distances (< 10km), which promote a rich mosaic of habitats in this ‘Ridge-to-Reef’ system. High resolution regional climate models (RCMs) can better resolve the mountainous terrain and associated microclimates, such as those within Puerto Rico which sits in the heart of the large-scale precipitation decline in the Atlantic Ocean. To illustrate the effects of the terrain on the climate and precipitation regime of Puerto Rico, two different GCMs are dynamically downscaled using a RCM to a 2-km horizontal resolution centered on mid-century, 2040-2060, for a business as usual (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas scenario. Results from these climate change realizations suggest that higher elevations within Puerto Rico may buffer the large projected subtropical precipitation decline. This presentation will discuss the robustness of these results and compare them to a statistical downscaling method that depicts more drying at higher elevations in the future. We highlight the implications for both water resource and natural resource management in Puerto Rico and similar areas around the world.

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