You are here:
Multimedia Lead Exposure Modeling, and Water Monitoring Perspectives
Citation:
Zartarian, V., J. Xue, R. Tornero-Velez, James Brown, T. Speth, AND J. Garland. Multimedia Lead Exposure Modeling, and Water Monitoring Perspectives. ISES 2017 Annual Meeting, Research Triangle Park, NC, October 15 - 19, 2017.
Impact/Purpose:
Presented at ISES 2017 - Integrating Exposure Science Across Diverse Communities.
Description:
Drinking water and other sources for lead are the subject of public health concern following the Flint, Michigan drinking water and East Chicago, Indiana lead in soil crises. In 2015, the U.S. EPA’s National Drinking Water Advisory Council recommended establishing a “health-based, household action level” for children based on exposure to lead in drinking water. A modeling approach, coupling the EPA’s SHEDS-Multimedia and IEUBK models was developed to help determine what drinking water lead concentrations keep children’s blood lead levels (BLLs) below specified values, considering exposures from water, soil, dust, food, and air. Related objectives were to evaluate the model estimates using real world blood lead data; quantify relative contributions by the various media; and identify key model inputs. This analysis for the U.S. population of young children probabilistically simulated multimedia exposures and estimated relative contributions of media to BLLs across all population percentiles for several age groups. Modeled BLLs compared well with nationally representative BLLs (0%-23% relative error). Analyses revealed the relative importance of soil and dust ingestion exposure pathways, and associated lead intake rates; water ingestion was also a main pathway, especially for infants. Given the spatial and temporal variability of household lead water concentrations, there are uncertainties in water lead concentration data collected under the current regulatory sampling schemes. Local-scale data for the various multimedia model inputs and BLLs would be beneficial for extending the coupled model approach to other applications and specific communities. This methodology advances scientific understanding of the relationship between lead concentrations in drinking water and BLLs in children.
