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Considerations in projecting energy-related emissions multiple decades into the future
Citation:
Loughlin, Dan, L. Ran, AND Chris Nolte. Considerations in projecting energy-related emissions multiple decades into the future. 2017 International Emissions Inventory Conference, Baltimore, Maryland, August 14 - 18, 2017.
Impact/Purpose:
Describe methods for using the MARKAL energy system model to develop long-term (multi-decadal) projections of air pollutant emissions for various scenarios of the future.
Description:
Use of fossil fuels for energy is the primary source of anthropogenic emissions of many air pollutants. Thus, the evolution of the energy system into the future can influence future emissions, driving those emissions up or down as a function of shifts in energy demand and fuel use. Energy system models can be used to analyze alternative energy system scenarios and develop associated emission projections. These projections, in turn, can support air quality modeling, life cycle analysis, and other applications. In this presentation, we discuss how we have used the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model to develop inputs to the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) processor. In particular, we discuss development of multiplicative emission growth and control factors, spatial adjustments made to account for population and land use changes, and temporal adjustments made to account for fuel switching and changes in diurnal demand profiles. We conclude the presentation with an identification of outstanding issues, such as determining the appropriate level of technological aggregation, siting new electric generation capacity, and accounting for uncertainty.