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Patterns of Risk Using an Integrated Spatial Multi-Hazard Model (PRISM Model)
Citation:
Buck, K., Kevin Summers, L. Smith, L. Harwell, AND S. Hafner. Patterns of Risk Using an Integrated Spatial Multi-Hazard Model (PRISM Model). Society for Conservation GIS Annual Conference, Monterey, CA, July 17 - 19, 2017.
Impact/Purpose:
This work summarizes the creation of a multi-hazard risk model for use by communities to assess potential mitigation strategies associated with natural or man-made events using the Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI).
Description:
Multi-hazard risk assessment has long centered on small scale needs, whereby a single community or group of communities’ exposures are assessed to determine potential mitigation strategies. While this approach has advanced the understanding of hazard interactions, it is limiting on larger scales or when significantly different hazard types are present. The model proposed here circumvents some of these issues by coalescing multiple hazards, both natural and anthropogenic, into a single index along with losses to represent a true hazard-scape that can be effectively tracked across space and time. Its creation will allow communities to analyze shifting patterns of risk in detail while also providing information to counties, states and regions on the distribution of risk across the landscape. This, along with loss numbers, allows for inclusion of multiple hazards in a single ledger with exposure and loss potentials acting as proxy for severity of risk. The proposed model is applied, and fully quantified, for the entire United States using the county as a spatial unit. Results highlight both a landscape with varied risk values as well as a lack of areas with no risk. The result of the quantitative analysis is a single risk value that decision makers can deconstruct along a multitude of hazards to determine specific risk profiles. This risk value provides a baseline for further studies in community resilience on multiple scales in the United States.