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Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Nonlinear and Nonstationary Teleconnection Signals and Artificial Neural Network Models
Citation:
Chang, N., J. Yang, S. Imen, AND L. Mullon. Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Nonlinear and Nonstationary Teleconnection Signals and Artificial Neural Network Models. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 548:305-321, (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.003
Impact/Purpose:
Communicate to science community on a new approach to forecast precipitation under climate change
Description:
Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can affect terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmosphere interaction known as climate teleconnection. Non-stationary and non-linear characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system make the identification of the teleconnection signals difficult to be detected at a local scale as it could cause large uncertainties when using linear correlation analysis only. This paper explores the relationship between global SST and terrestrial precipitation with respect to long-term non-stationary teleconnection signals during 1981-2010 over three regions in North America and one in Central America. Empirical mode decomposition as well as wavelet analysis is utilized to extract the intrinsic trend and the dominant oscillation of the SST and precipitation time series in sequence. After finding possible associations between the dominant oscillation of seasonal precipitation and global SST through lagged correlation analysis, the statistically significant SST regions are extracted based on the correlation coefficient. With these characterized associations, individual contribution of these SST forcing regions linked to the related precipitation responses are further quantified through nonlinear modeling with the aid of extreme learning machine. Results indicate that the non-leading SST regions also contribute a salient portion to the terrestrial precipitation variability compared to some known leading SST regions. In some cases, these estimated contributions reveals some clues of the coupling interactions between oceanic and atmospheric processes.
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DOI: Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Nonlinear and Nonstationary Teleconnection Signals and Artificial Neural Network Models
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.003
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