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Thermodynamics and the evolution of a city: a tale of how Chicago came to be, from biophysical and socio-economic perspectives
Citation:
Boumans, R., Dan Campbell, L. Erban, S. Balogh, H. Walker, AND T. Gleason. Thermodynamics and the evolution of a city: a tale of how Chicago came to be, from biophysical and socio-economic perspectives. U.S. Regional Association of the International Association for Landscape Ecology Annual Meeting, Baltimore, MD, April 09 - 13, 2017.
Impact/Purpose:
Systems analysis approaches are needed to understand and manage the trajectory of change in urban systems, and solve complex 21st century problems, in ways that could lead to cost effective, socially acceptable, and environmentally sound solutions. Energy Systems Theory (EST) can be used to account for energy, material, and information flows involved in growth, maintenance of cities; and can help identify structural and functional tipping points, that may originate in response to changes in biophysical resources the city depends on. Urban dynamics may also be affected by building booms and busts; that originate as part of normal business cycles. Structures and functions that can not be sustained, due to natural resource shortage, or unserviceable debt will collapse into more sustainable patterns. This research involves development and testing of EST methods, that can help identify patterns of urban restructuring, that could contribute to solving complex 21st century urban design challenges, in the context of climate change, and needed energy and water sector restructuring
Description:
Cities are complex organized systems, similar to biological and ecological systems in the way that they are structured and function. These systems are subject to the laws of thermodynamics and the principles of Energy Systems Theory (EST). Like other systems, cities experience larger scale drivers of change in resources. Unlike other ecosystems, cities react through socio-economic responses.Important contributions towards an integrated understanding of urban dynamics can be gained when their structures, functions and developments are interpreted within EST contexts.We have constructed a systems dynamics model that simulates some structural and functional aspects of Chicago in space and over time and we interpret model outcomes using EST. The purposes of the model are twofold, a knowledge base for integrating historical information, and for scenario modeling. Our history of Chicago starts in 1830 as a narrative, on the economic development and human population growth. Illustrated by a series of conceptual Energy Systems Models, it describes changes in trade, land tenure, and transportation as a result of increased access to nonlocal resources. Our simulation model, covers the post-World War II period to the present, and examines changes in population and its distribution on the landscape, material and energy flows, alterations of fresh water flows and management of wastewater. Scenario modeling is performed using a platform that estimates the potential implications and sustainability trade-offs as consequences of decision alternatives. Preconceived future scenarios include constraints in the availability of commodities and energy, changes in climate, and adaptation through lifestyle changes and policy intervention