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Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land-use change on an endangered bird
Citation:
Bancroft, B., J. Lawler, AND N. Schumaker. Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land-use change on an endangered bird. Ecology and Evolution. Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Hoboken, NJ, 6(13):4468-4477, (2016).
Impact/Purpose:
Climate change and land-use change are projected to be two of the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Many scientific investigations have examined these drivers in isolation, but few studies have examined the interacting impacts that the stresses might when they affect the same system at the same time. This study looks at the combined effects of land-use change and biodiversity in the context of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker, at the Fort Benning, military base in Georgia, USA.
Description:
Climate change and land-use change are projected to be two of the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Land-use change, particularly the conversion of more natural lands to agriculture or residential or commercial development has resulted in extensive habitat loss and fragmentation for many species. Likewise, climate change has affected many species resulting in range shifts, changes in phenology, and altered interspecific interactions. We used a spatially-explicit, individual-based model to explore the effects of land-use change and climate change on the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis) at Fort Benning, Georgia, USA. We created multiple land-use change scenarios representing different spatial arrangements of new training areas for troops across the military base. We explored the potential effects of climate change on the resident RCW population through projected changes in habitat and changes in reproductive output. We summarized potential changes in habitat based on the output of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, run for multiple climate-change scenarios through the year 2100. We projected potential changes in reproduction based on an empirical relationship between spring precipitation and the mean number of successful fledglings produced per nest attempt. As modeled in our study, climate change had virtually no effect on the RCW population. Conversely, simulated effects of land-use change resulted in the loss of up to 28 breeding pairs by 2100. However, the simulated impacts of development depended on where the development occurred and could be completely avoided if the new training areas were placed outside of RCW habitat. Our results highlight the continued importance of addressing habitat loss due to land-use change as well as demonstrate the flexibility inherent in many systems that allows seemingly incompatible human land uses and conservation actions to exist side-by-side.
