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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD: EVALUATION OF THE EFFICACITY OF DIFFERENT MODELING APPROACHES
Citation:
Bachelet, D., J. Sickle, AND C. Gay. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD: EVALUATION OF THE EFFICACITY OF DIFFERENT MODELING APPROACHES. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA/600/A-92/109 (NTIS PB92188754), 1991.
Description:
Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases are expected to modify the climate of the earth in the next 50-100 years. echanisms of plant response to these changes need to be incorporated in models that predict crop yield to obtain an understanding of the potential consequences of such changes. he objectives of this paper are 1) review climate change predictions and their reliability, 2) review the major hypotheses and/or experimental results regarding rice sensitivity to climate change, and 3) evaluate the suitability of existing rice models for assessing the impact of global climate change on rice production in the rice-growing areas of Asia. A review of physiologically-based rice models (CSRES-RICE, MACROS, RICESYS) illustrates their potential to predict possible rice responses to elevated cod and increased temperature. oth MACROS and CSRES responses to temperature and CO2 agrees with recent experimental data from Baker et al. ICESYS is an ecosystem model which predicts herbivory and inter-species competition between rice and weeds but does not include CO2 effects. ts response to increasing temperature also agrees with experimental findings. odels using empirical relationships between climate and yield have been used to predict country-scare changes following climate change. heir simplicity is an asset for continental-scale assessments but the climatic effects are often overshadowed by stronger technological or political effects. n conclusion, each modeling approach has its value. Researchers should choose or build the most appropriate model for their projects' objectives.