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Implications of Nonlinear Concentration Response Curve for Ozone related Mortality on Health Burden Assessment
Citation:
Rappold, A. Implications of Nonlinear Concentration Response Curve for Ozone related Mortality on Health Burden Assessment. Joint Statitical Meeting, Chicago, Illinois, July 31 - August 04, 2016.
Impact/Purpose:
This presentation will illustrate a new methodological approach to burden assessment using ozone mortality as a case study.
Description:
We characterize the sensitivity of the ozone attributable health burden assessment with respect to different modeling strategies of concentration-response function. For this purpose, we develop a flexible Bayesian hierarchical model allowing for a nonlinear ozone risk curve with a shape parameter controlling the prior belief about the monotonicity of the risk through the prior distribution of basis function parameters. We used polynomial spline basis functions and their derivatives to evaluate the relative risk of ozone at all percentiles of the distribution. Linear concentration-response model and the model reflecting no prior belief about the monotonicity are examined as special cases. We examine the sensitivity of the health burden with respect to hypothetical and observed changes in the ozone distribution by applying modeled concentration-response functions. The model is applied to the mortality time series data from major US urban centers between 1985 and 2005. This abstract does not necessarily reflect U.S. EPA policy.