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DEVELOPMENT OF AN ECONOMICS-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTING FUTURE POLLUTION PROBLEMS
Citation:
Stacey, G. AND J. Flinn. DEVELOPMENT OF AN ECONOMICS-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTING FUTURE POLLUTION PROBLEMS. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA/600/5-78/011 (NTIS PB284337), 1978.
Description:
The research in this project was devoted to developing a methodology having utility for an ultimate purpose of identifying potential future toxic substance pollution problems. An approach was desired that would be systematic, comprehensive, and futuristic. The methodology that has resulted is an economics-based one that initiates the identification of problems by focusing on the potential for their occurrence in the production, exchange, and consumption of goods and services. The methodology was developed and tested by exercising the various components. The steps in the approach are to rank products (exchanged in the marketplace) according to the potential they have for being associated with future pollution problems. For the high ranked products, additional information on the chemical constituents of the product are identified. The final step is to analyze the chemical constituents to determine which chemicals occur frequently and in large quantities. At the same time the potential that each of the chemicals has for resulting in toxic substance problems would be assessed. In ranking the products parameters on historical growth, future growth, dispersion technical change, and value of shipments were developed and used. A specific group of products was examined to determine their chemical content. The results of this effort showed that identifying chemical constituents of products required considerable resources. The final step of analyzing chemicals to determine frequency and quantity was developed conceptually but due to resource limitations could not be applied. (Portions of this document are not fully legible)