Citation:

Leemans, R. AND A. Solomon. MODELING THE POTENTIAL CHANGE IN YIELD AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE EARTH'S CROPS UNDER A WARMED CLIMATE. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA/600/J-94/158 (NTIS PB94157369), 1993.

Description:

The large scale distribution of crops is largely determined by climate. e present the results of a climate-crop prediction model based on the U.S. Food & Agriculture Organization crop-suitability approach, implemented in a geographic information system(GIS) environment using several global environmental databases. he model utilizes daily temperature and moisture conditions to determine the properties of the growing period. rops are characterized by their variety-specific minimum growing period requirements and photosynthesis and respiration properties. emperature and solar radiation during the growing period control the development of each crop. he model simulates crop-specific geographic distributions by demarcating the region where productivity is possible. he model takes only non-irrigated crop productivity into account and the potential increase in productivity by technological means is not considered. he model therefore shows no crop growth along major rivers in arid, often irrigated, regions. he simulated distributions of crops under current climatic conditions coincide largely with the current regions of agriculture. imulations with different GCM-derived climate-change scenarios illustrate potential changes in the agricultural potential. here are large regional differences in the longer growing periods and an increased productivity. ost other regions, however, do not benefit significantly or even lose productivity after such change. n most of the latter regions changes in moisture availability controls the change. he analysis shows that agricultural potential and impacts of climatic changes can be simulated. se of such an approach should improve current land cover models.

URLs/Downloads:

Record Details:

Document IDs: