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ESP v2.0: Improved method for projecting U.S. GHG and air pollution emissions through 2055
Citation:
Loughlin, Dan, L. Ran, AND Chris Nolte. ESP v2.0: Improved method for projecting U.S. GHG and air pollution emissions through 2055. Presented at CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 27 - 29, 2014.
Impact/Purpose:
We present an updated methodology for projecting future greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions through 2055. The significance of this revised method is that it accounts for population growth and land use change dynamics in spatially distributing future-year emissions to a modeling grid suitable for use with state-of-the-art air quality models.
Description:
This product includes both a presentation and an extended abstract. We describe the Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method, version 2.0. ESP is used to develop multi-decadal projections of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria pollutant emissions. The resulting future-year emissions can then be translated into an emissions inventory and applied in climate and air quality modeling. ESP projections accomodate different assumptions about a wide range of emission drivers, including population growth and migration, economic growth and transformation, technological changes, land use changes, and current and potential policies (e.g., air quality, energy or climate). At the heart of the ESP method is the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system optimization model. Optimization allows the option of identifying the least cost technological and fuel choices for achieving air quality and climate goals simultaneously. The ESP method has continued to be improved since it was first described in a 2011 publication. Updates include expanded pollutant coverage and a new MARKAL database that reflects recent energy system developments (e.g., the availability of unconventional fossil fuels and the successful commercial introduction of electric vehicles). In addition, ESP 2.0 includes the ability to update the spatial distribution of emission projections to account for population and land use changes, as predicted by the Integrated Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model. In this presentation, we provide an overview of ESP 2.0 and present an illustrative emission projection for 2050, with a particular focus on evaluating spatial redistribution of emissions.