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Examining Long-Term Trends in Mobile Source Related Pollutants through Analysis of Emissions, Observations and Model Simulations
Citation:
Hogrefe, C., J. Xing, M. Gan, David-C Wong, Jon Pleim, AND R. Mathur. Examining Long-Term Trends in Mobile Source Related Pollutants through Analysis of Emissions, Observations and Model Simulations. 2015 CRC Mobile Source Air Toxics Workshop, Sacramento, CA, February 17 - 19, 2015.
Impact/Purpose:
The National Exposure Research Laboratory’s Atmospheric Modeling Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA’s mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD’s research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the Nation’s air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollution problem, but also in developing emission control policies and regulations for air quality improvements.
Description:
Anthropogenic emissions from a variety of sectors including mobile sources have decreased substantially over the past decades despite continued growth in population and economic activity. In this study, we analyze 1990-2010 trends in emission inventories, ambient observations and concentrations simulated by the coupled WRF-CMAQ photochemical modeling system over the continental U.S. in an attempt to disentangle the contributions from the various sectors and isolate the mobile source signal. To this end, we focus on pollutants with a strong mobile source signal, in particular toluene, xylene and elemental carbon (EC). The analysis of observed and simulated concentration trends is supplemented by the analysis of speciated sector-specific emission inventories. In addition to toluene, xylene and EC, the analysis also includes emissions and concentrations of NOx, VOC and CO. Weekday / weekend differences in emissions and concentrations are used to further distinguish between contributions from different sectors. The results of the analysis are discussed in terms of further research needs as well as the utility of long-term records of emissions, observations and model simulations for accountability assessments.
URLs/Downloads:
http://www.crcao.com/workshops/2015%20CRC%20Mobile%20Source%20Air%20Toxics/index.html