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What models can teach us about watershed-nearshore relationships that observational studies cannot
Citation:
Pauer, J., X. Zhang, W. Melendez, P. DePetro, AND R. Kreis. What models can teach us about watershed-nearshore relationships that observational studies cannot. IAGLR, Burlington, VT, May 25 - 29, 2015.
Impact/Purpose:
not applicable
Description:
The nearshore waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes are a valuable resource for drinking water, recreation, fishing, wildlife and industrial usage. However, environmental concerns such as eutrophication and the colonization of invasive species have resulted in the call for an overall assessment of this zone in the most recent Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. Several observational studies in the Great Lakes have been performed to improve our understanding of the nearshore and the impact of the watershed on this zone. A limitation of these studies is that they only provide a snapshot of the nearshore conditions. In contrast, mathematical models have the ability to describe and forecast spatial and temporal changes of these conditions under different loadings, meteorology and lake hydrodynamics. Here we will present the results of a model showing the cause-effect relationship between the Grand River discharge and the nearshore zone of Lake Michigan. A 2km x 2 km grid encompassing the nearshore area around the river mouth was nested within a lake wide model; mathematical equations were implemented to describe nearshore conditions. The model results show the impact the riverine load on areas adjacent to the river mouth over time, and in addition reveal some surprising findings not previously apparent in observational studies.