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Progress and Challenges in Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Estuarine Modeling
Citation:
Gangu, N., M. Brush, B. Rashleigh, A. Aretxabaleta, P. del Barrio, J. Grear, L. Harris, S. Lake, G. McCardell, J. O'Donnell, D. Ralston, R. Signell, J. Testa, AND J. Vaudrey. Progress and Challenges in Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Estuarine Modeling. Estuaries and Coasts. Estuarine Research Federation, Port Republic, MD, 39(2):311-332, (2016).
Impact/Purpose:
This paper reviews the history, philosophy, and application of coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models in estuaries. We focus on current limitations of these models, appropriate use of skill assessments, and the balance between complexity and parsimony. We highlight the value of models of varying complexity in practical problems, and based on past lessons, conclude with recommendations for the estuarine modeling and research community. This manuscript was conceived at a workshop in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, in September 2013. The original goal of the workshop was to recognize the diversity of modeling approaches for management and research applications, and evaluate the merits of these approaches. It was clear from the workshop that there are no review publications dealing with these issues, specifically for estuarine systems. We believe that this review will be a useful resource for those of us attempting to understand estuarine ecosystem function through modeling.
Description:
Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem function, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are important drivers of ecosystems behavior. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.
