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Energy, environmental and climate assessment with the EPA MARKAL energy system modeling framework
Citation:
Loughlin, Dan, C. Lenox, AND R. Dodder. Energy, environmental and climate assessment with the EPA MARKAL energy system modeling framework. Presented at Health Effects Institute 2015 Annual Conference, Philadelphia, PA, May 03 - 05, 2015.
Impact/Purpose:
Describes applications of the EPA MARKAL modeling framework in support of integrated assessment of air, climate, and energy.
Description:
The energy system is comprised of the technologies and fuels that extend from the import or extraction of energy resources (e.g., mines and wells), through the conversion of these resources into useful forms (e.g., electricity and gasoline), to the technologies (e.g., cars, lightbulbs, and building heating systems) that meet end-use energy demands (e.g., miles driven, lumens for lighting, and watts per square meter for space heating). This system is responsible for the vast majority of US man-made emissions of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs). Many of society’s future air quality management and climate challenges will be influenced by how the energy system evolves over the coming decades. Factors influencing this evolution include population growth and migration, economic growth and transformation, land use change, technology development and deployment, climate change, and current and future environmental, climate and energy policies. Understanding how various factors affect energy demands and the associated emissions is critical if we are to anticipate the resulting environmental challenges and act proactively. The U.S. EPA has developed the EPA MARKAL framework, consisting of the MARKAL energy system model and the EPA 9-region MARKAL database. With this framework EPA is examining wide-ranging scenarios of the evolution of the U.S. energy system through 2055. The EPA MARKAL framework is providing insights about strategies for simultaneously achieving air, water resource, climate and energy goals. In this poster, we provide overviews of EPA MARKAL applications, including: (a) assessing the air and climate pollutant implications of alternative scenarios of the future, (b) estimating the co-benefits and other impacts of potential mitigation strategies, and (c) characterizing multi-pollutant mitigation potential of renewable electricity, energy efficiency, and fuel switching.