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The role of future scenarios to understand deep uncertainty in air quality management
Citation:
Gamas, J., Dan Loughlin, R. Dodder, AND G. Cynthia. The role of future scenarios to understand deep uncertainty in air quality management. 13th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 27 - 29, 2014.
Impact/Purpose:
This abstract presents illustrative results for the application of the scenario planning process in the context of air quality management. It is the result of a collaborative effort between ORD and OAQPS.
Description:
The environment and it’s interaction with human systems (economic, social and political) is complex and dynamic. Key drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions precisely. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenarios represent a key tool that can benefit decision-makers under these conditions (Schwartz 1997; Schoemaker 1991). We propose and demonstrate the application of the future scenarios method to air quality management.