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An analysis of historic and projected climate scenarios in the Western United States using hydrologic landscape classification.
Citation:
Jones, C., S. Leibowitz, K. Sawicz, R. Comeleo, L. Stratton, AND P. Wigington. An analysis of historic and projected climate scenarios in the Western United States using hydrologic landscape classification. American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA, December 14 - 18, 2015.
Impact/Purpose:
Hydrologic landscape (HL) classification is an active area of research on regional and national scales in the United States. EPA’s Western Ecology Division continues to expand a framework for defining areas of the landscape that are hypothesized to have similar hydrologic responses. The concept has been or is being used to make spatially distributed assessments of variability in streamflow and climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest (PNW), and is currently being applied to the Southwestern U.S (SW). In our research, we are analyzing historic climate models and future climate projections to assess how changes in climate affect hydrologic processes and their associated impacts (e.g. water resource availability, ecological impacts, etc.) across the PNW and the SW. The HL classification process analyzes the primary drivers (climate, seasonality, aquifer permeability, terrain, and soil permeability) that are associated with large scale hydrologic processes (storage, conveyance, and flow of water into or out of the watershed). In this analysis, we summarize (1) the HL classification methodology and (2) how historic (1900-present) PRISM climate data and climate projections are being used to assess how changes in climate affect hydrologic processes and their associated impacts (e.g. water resource availability, ecological impacts, etc.) in the Western U.S. This conference will allow us to present the Hydrologic Landscapes methodology to an audience that is specifically interested in the climate of the western United States and will provide feedback our modeling approach and the Hydrologic Landscapes methodology. This work helps address the issue of vulnerability of hydrologic landscapes and streamflow to climate change under ACE Task MA-1 249 by expanding the hydrologic landscape mapping to the southwest.
Description:
: Identifying areas of similar hydrology within the United States and its regions (hydrologic landscapes - HLs) is an active area of research. HLs are being used to construct spatially distributed assessments of variability in streamflow and climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest. HLs are currently being applied across the Western U.S. to assess historic and projected climatic impacts. During the HL classification process, we analyze climate, seasonality, aquifer permeability, terrain, and soil permeability as the primary hydrologic drivers (and precipitation intensity as a secondary driver) associated with large scale hydrologic processes (storage, conveyance, and flow of water into or out of the watershed) in the West. Hypotheses regarding the dominant hydrologic pathways derived from the HL classification system are tested to corroborate or falsify these assumptions. Changes in climate are more likely to affect certain hydrogeologic parameters than others. For instance, changes in climate may result in changes in the magnitude, timing, or type of precipitation (snow vs. rain). Air temperature and the seasonality of dominant hydrologic processes may also be impacted. However, the effect of these changes on streamflow will depend on soil and aquifer permeability. In this analysis, we summarize (1) the HL classification methodology and (2) the use of historic (1900-present) PRISM climate data and climate projections to assess how changes in climate affect hydrologic processes and their associated impacts (e.g. water resource availability, ecological impacts, etc.) in the Western U.S.