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Ozone Trends Across the United States over a Period of Decreasing NOx and VOC Emissions
Citation:
Simon, H., A. Reff, B. Wells, J. Xing, AND N. Frank. Ozone Trends Across the United States over a Period of Decreasing NOx and VOC Emissions. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY. American Chemical Society, Washington, DC, 49(1):186-195, (2015).
Impact/Purpose:
The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollution problem, but also in developing emission control policies and regulations for air quality improvements.
Description:
In this work, we evaluate ambient ozone trends at urban, suburban, and rural monitoring sites across the United States over a period of decreasing NOx and VOC emissions (1998–2013). We find that decreasing ozone trends generally occur in the summer, in less urbanized areas, and at the upper end of the ozone distribution. Conversely, increasing ozone trends generally occur in the winter, in more urbanized areas, and at the lower end of the ozone distribution. The 95th percentile ozone concentrations decreased at urban, suburban, and rural monitors by 1–2 ppb/yr in the summer and 0.5–1 ppb/yr in the winter. In the summer, there are both increasing and decreasing trends in fifth percentile ozone concentrations of less than 0.5 ppb/yr at urban and suburban monitors, while fifth percentile ozone concentrations at rural monitors decreased by up to 1 ppb/yr. In the winter, fifth percentile ozone concentrations generally increased by 0.1–1 ppb/yr. These results demonstrate the large scale success of U.S. control strategies targeted at decreasing peak ozone concentrations. In addition, they indicate that as anthropogenic NOx emissions have decreased, the ozone distribution has been compressed, leading to less spatial and temporal variability.
