Citation:

Hall, EricS. Correlation Between Hierarchical Bayesian and Aerosol Optical Depth PM2.5 Data and Respiratory-Cardiovascular Chronic Diseases. ISEE C2onference, Seattle, WA, August 24 - 28, 2014.

Impact/Purpose:

The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Human Exposure and Atmospheric Sciences Division (HEASD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. HEASD research program supports Goal 1 (Clean Air) and Goal 4 (Healthy People) of EPA strategic plan. More specifically, our division conducts research to characterize the movement of pollutants from the source to contact with humans. Our multidisciplinary research program produces Methods, Measurements, and Models to identify relationships between and characterize processes that link source emissions, environmental concentrations, human exposures, and target-tissue dose. The impact of these tools is improved regulatory programs and policies for EPA

Description:

Tools to estimate PM2.5 mass have expanded in recent years, and now include: 1) stationary monitor readings, 2) Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model estimates, 3) Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) estimates from combined stationary monitor readings and CMAQ model output; and, 4) calibrated Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) readings from two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spetroradiometer (MODIS) units on National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Terra and Aqua satellites. Case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression were used to determine concentration response (CR) functions for three different PM2.5 levels on asthma emergency department (ED) visits and acute myocardial infarction (MI) inpatient hospitalizations in ninety-nine, 12 km2 grids in Baltimore, MD (2005 data). HB analyses for asthma ED visits produced significant results at 3-day lags for the main effect (OR=1.002, 95% CI=1.000-1.005), and two effect modifiers for females (OR=1.003, 95% CI=1.000-1.006), and non-Caucasian/non-African American persons (OR=1.010, 95% CI=1.001-1.019). HB analyses for acute MI inpatient hospitalizations also consistently produced a significant outcome for persons of other race (OR=1.031, 95% CI=1.006-1.056). Correlation coefficients computed between stationary monitor and satellite AOD PM2.5 values were significant for both asthma (rxy=0.944) and acute MI (rxy=0.940). Both monitor and AOD PM2.5 values were higher in February and June through August, than other months. For these four months, the ORs for AOD PM2.5 at 3-day lags were significant for both asthma ED visits (p<0.01) and acute MI inpatient hospitalizations (p<0.01). These results suggest that satellite AOD PM2.5 includes homogenous spatial and temporal coverage. CR functions for the effects of HB, satellite AOD and related PM2.5 estimates for asthma, acute MI and six additional cardiovascular conditions are now being evaluated in a more comprehensive data analysis study with three years of observations.

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