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Prediction of Coral Bleaching in the Florida Keys Using Remotely Sensed Data
Citation:
Barnes, B., P. Hallock, C. Hu, F. Muller-Karger, D. Palandro, C. Walter, AND R. Zepp. Prediction of Coral Bleaching in the Florida Keys Using Remotely Sensed Data. CORAL REEFS. Springer, New York, NY, 34(2):491-503, (2015).
Impact/Purpose:
Article published in the journal, Coral Reefs
Description:
Coral bleaching has been attributed to extremes or stressful synergy in several physical variables of the coral habitat. Of particular concern have been temperature, ultraviolet radiation, and photosynthetically available radiation. Satellite observing systems allow synoptic-scale monitoring of coral environments, which can be used to investigate the individual and combined effects of such environmental parameters. Recent advancement in algorithm development made it possible to include light availability in such monitoring. Long-term satellite data (2000-2013), in combination with in situ bleaching surveys (N = 3334; spanning 2003-2012) were used to identify the environmental factors contributing to bleaching of Florida Reef Tract corals. Stepwise multiple linear regression supports the conclusion that elevated sea surface temperature (SST; partial R_adj^2 = 0.13; p < 0.001) and high visible light reaching the benthos (partial R_adj^2 = 0.06; p < 0.001) each independently contributed to coral bleaching. The effect of SST was modulated by significant interactions with wind speed (partial R_adj^2 = 0.03; p < 0.001) and ultraviolet benthic available light (partial R_adj^2 = 0.01; p = 0.022). These relationships were combined via canonical analysis of principal coordinates to create a predictive model of coral reef bleaching for the region. This model predicted ‘severe bleaching’ and ‘no bleaching’ conditions with 69% and 57% classification success, respectively, which is approximately 2.5 times greater than that predicted by chance, and shows improvement over similar models created using only temperature data. The results lead to a greater understanding of the factors contributing to coral bleaching and allow for weekly assessment of historical and current bleaching stress.
