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An eco-evolutionary IBM improves predictions of future geneticconnectivity for American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) in Crater Lake National Park, Oregon
Citation:
Castillo, J., D. Schwalm, C. Epps, W. Monahan, N. Schumaker, AND R. Rodhouse. An eco-evolutionary IBM improves predictions of future geneticconnectivity for American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) in Crater Lake National Park, Oregon. International Association for Landscape Ecology, Portland, OR, July 05 - 10, 2015.
Impact/Purpose:
Efforts to protect populations of pika will be improved through the use of the advanced computer forecasting models applied in this study. This presentation will introduce researchers to our new methodologies and research findings.
Description:
In the face of rapid, contemporary climate change, conservationbiologists are relying heavily on species distribution models (SDMs)to predict shifting occupancy and distribution patterns in responseto future conditions. These models are critical tools for assessingvulnerability to climate change. However, SDMs are often limited toclimate variables, neglecting to incorporate other factors whichdrive occupancy patterns and ultimately population viability. Forexample, SDMs fail to capture species-landscape interactions(e.g., dispersal ability and behavior) that can be significantdrivers of not only occupancy rates, but also gene flow and geneticdiversity. This is particularly concerning for species restrictedto specialized habitats which are spatially disjunct. Here, weexpand on traditional approaches used to explore the species-climatechange interaction. First, we develop an SDM for the American pika(Ochotona princeps) using a combination of climatic and habitatvariables, including connectivity metrics derived from empiricalgenetic data. We then predict occupancy in the contemporarylandscape, as well as in three future timesteps with two scenariosdepicting possible future conditions. We incorporate thesechanging occupancy patterns with an empirically-derived landscaperesistance and demographic model in HexSim. Using this model, wepredict changes in genetic structure and diversity for Americanpikas in Crater Lake National Park, Oregon. Finally, we evaluatethe potential for artificial habitat construction and translocation to improve future population connectivity and genetic diversity. Our approach ranks alternate conservation strategies intended to improve gene-flow and long-term population viability, providing critical insights that will inform the management of this climate-sensitive species.