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Linking mechanistic toxicology to population models in forecasting recovery from chemical stress: A case study from Jackfish Bay, Ontario, Canada
Citation:
Miller, D., Joe Tietge, M. McMaster, K. Munkittrick, X. Xia, D. Griesmer, AND G. Ankley. Linking mechanistic toxicology to population models in forecasting recovery from chemical stress: A case study from Jackfish Bay, Ontario, Canada. ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY. Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Pensacola, FL, 34(7):1623-1633, (2015).
Impact/Purpose:
A Beneficial Use Impairment (BUI) common at Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) is loss of fish and wildlife populations. Consequently, recovery of populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating remediation success. We describe a framework that can be applied in conjunction with field monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) to link chemically induced alterations in molecular and biochemical endpoints to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. Our approach employs a simple density dependent logistic matrix model linked to adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for reproductive effects in fish caused by contaminants that impact different points within the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. We demonstrate application of this framework using linked AOPs and population models parameterized with long-term monitoring data for white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) collected from a study site at Jackfish Bay, Lake Superior. Individual-level responses of fish exposed to pulp mill effluent were used to demonstrate the framework’s capability to project alterations in population status, both in terms of ongoing impact and subsequent recovery after stressor mitigation associated with process changes at the mill. Extrapolation of the applied framework demonstrated at the Jackfish Bay site can be made to characterize population status of other species at a variety of impacted sites (such as other Great Lakes AOCs), including accounting for effects of multiple stressors (both chemical and non-chemical) and complex landscapes (i.e., meta-populations including emigration and immigration processes).
Description:
A Beneficial Use Impairment (BUI) common at Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) is loss of fish and wildlife populations. Consequently, recovery of populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating remediation success. We describe a framework that can be applied in conjunction with field monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) to link chemically induced alterations in molecular and biochemical endpoints to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. Our approach employs a simple density dependent logistic matrix model linked to adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for reproductive effects in fish caused by contaminants that impact different points within the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. Application of this framework requires a life table for the organism of interest, a measure of carrying capacity for the given population, and estimation of the effect of stressors on vital rates of organisms within the study population. We demonstrate application of this framework using linked AOPs and population models parameterized with long-term monitoring data for white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) collected from a study site at Jackfish Bay, Lake Superior. Individual-level responses of fish exposed to pulp mill effluent were used to demonstrate the framework’s capability to project alterations in population status, both in terms of ongoing impact and subsequent recovery after stressor mitigation associated with process changes at the mill. Extrapolation of the applied framework demonstrated at the Jackfish Bay site can be made to characterize population status of other species at a variety of impacted sites (such as other Great Lakes AOCs), including accounting for effects of multiple stressors (both chemical and non-chemical) and complex landscapes (i.e., meta-populations including emigration and immigration processes).
