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Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions
Citation:
Flanders, N. Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions. National Planning Conference, Atlanta, GA, April 26 - 30, 2014.
Impact/Purpose:
Summarizing system dynamics modeling for SHC transportation.
Description:
Proposed Title: Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions Topic (must choose one item from a drop-down list): Community Indicators Learning Objectives (must list 2): • What are the benefits and limitations of using system dynamics modeling to assess outcomes in a community? • How do transportation and land use policies and projects in a neighborhood affect decisions by households and businesses on where to locate and what travel behavior to engage in? General Description (“In no more than 200 words provide a general description of the poster.”): The author has explored the utility of a system dynamics approach for identifying the interrelated impacts of transportation and land use policies on neighborhood-scale economic outcomes for households and businesses. Insights from these interrelationships may lead to the development of indicators by which to identify beneficial community development strategies, and to identify potential tradeoffs. System-dynamics simulation software was used to build causal loop diagrams of links between the transportation system, land use patterns, and a wide variety of environmental, social, and economic outcomes. Often, a variable influences another through multiple chains of intermediate variables, so that it is not always evident whether changing one variable will have a positive or negative net effect on another. For example, new job centers in a neighborhood may attract some new residents through higher employment rates and shorter travel distances, but repel others through air and noise pollution and increased traffic congestion. The causal loop diagrams in the poster will illustrate additional relationships of this sort. Planners can use these causal loop diagrams to identify tradeoffs and co-benefits not previously considered and key inputs which currently lack data. However, the diagrams also demonstrate how the complexity of system dynamics models hinders their practicality. What information and skills will people take back to their own communities?: General and specific examples of trade-offs, co-benefits, and causal loops that may not be obvious, but which system dynamics modeling can highlight.