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Energy Modeling Forum Study #26 CHANGING THE GAME?: EMISSIONS AND MARKET IMPLICATIONS OF NEW NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES: EPA US9r MARKAL Model Results
Citation:
Kaplan, O. AND C. Lenox. Energy Modeling Forum Study #26 CHANGING THE GAME?: EMISSIONS AND MARKET IMPLICATIONS OF NEW NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES: EPA US9r MARKAL Model Results. Presented at Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford, CA, November 28 - 29, 2012.
Impact/Purpose:
The purpose of this presentation is to discuss results from the EPA US 9 region MARKAL model that analyzes market and environmental implications of increased natural gas resources. The presentation will be given in Energy Modeling Forum's meeting in Stanford, CA.
Description:
With the application of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, new natural gas shale formations are becoming widely available in North America at competitive prices. This development has created an extensive search for new markets where natural gas may compete effectively with other energy sources. Recent government forecasts (EIA) suggest that this transformation may have mixed effects on carbon dioxide emissions. Although natural gas is less carbon intensive than other fossil fuels, it is more carbon intensive than nuclear, renewables and energy efficiency. This study looked at various scenarios to address following questions: (1) which end-use sectors will absorb most of the increased natural gas supplies and by how much? (2) which energy sources in these sectors will be replaced by natural gas supplies? (3) what is the likely range of natural gas prices at the wellhead and by end-use sector? (4) how do these energy-market transformations influence carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions? (5) what are the implications for LNG imports and US-Canadian pipeline flows? and (6) will North America become a major gas exporter in world markets?
