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Scenarios for the Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in an Uncertain World
Citation:
Gamas, J. AND R. Dodder. Scenarios for the Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in an Uncertain World. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R/12/682, 2012.
Impact/Purpose:
This document lays out a brief overview of the scenario planning approach and the resulting four scenarios that were developed collaboratively between OAQPS and ORD. This is a working paper that represents an exploratory approach to applying scenario planning to air quality management.
Description:
On November 15 and 16 of 2010, EPA hosted a workshop: The Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in An Uncertain World in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. This workshop was an “outside-of-the-box” thinking exercise, where a small group of EPA staff and managers brainstormed on critical variables for the future and their impact on air quality. The objective of this workshop was to develop a small but diverse set of critical alternative future scenarios. Ultimately, we hope that the scenario planning process and the resulting scenarios will improve our ability to consider alternative future air quality concerns and develop cost-effective and robust policy responses. This document lays out an overview of the resulting scenario narratives; internally consistent stories about the future guided by two axis representing the most critical and uncertain drivers for air quality at the time the exercise was conducted. This work represents an exploration exercise. No official endorsement of one scenario or another should be inferred. This document and its contents should not be construed to reflect the views of the agency, nor represent any agency determination or policy.