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A Novel Approach for Evaluation of Water Quality Trends in Gulf Coast Estuaries
Citation:
Beck, M., Jim Hagy, AND M. Murrell. A Novel Approach for Evaluation of Water Quality Trends in Gulf Coast Estuaries. Bays and Bayous Symposium, Mobile, AL, December 02 - 03, 2014.
Impact/Purpose:
The purpose of this abstract is to describe current work on statistical models for improved trend evaluation in Gulf Coast estuaries.
Description:
Water quality data form the backbone of management programs aimed at protecting environmental resources. The increasing availability of long-term monitoring data for estuaries can improve detection of temporal and spatial changes in water quality. However, the relatively simple methods that are commonly used to evaluate trends are often insufficient to disaggregate the complex effects of multiple environmental drivers, limiting the potential to relate changes to possible causes. Continuous monitoring data reflect variation from both natural and human-induced factors, such that observed data may provide misleading information on system response to management actions. For example, chlorophyll and dissolved oxygen are common water quality endpoints that are used to support decision-making, yet observed data can reflect variation in pollutant loads, freshwater inputs, and tidal advection. Recent advances for trend evaluation of water quality in streams and rivers have shown that statistical models using a weighted regression approach can improve our ability to discriminate among multiple environmental drivers. These techniques are useful for quantifying system response that is independent of natural variation related to freshwater discharge or other confounding factors. Weighted regresssion techniques have not been extensively applied in Gulf of Mexico estuaries, despite the availability of many long-term datasets.