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The Effect of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the U.S.
Citation:
The Effect of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the U.S.
Impact/Purpose:
To estimate the economic impacts of drought in the U.S.
Description:
In this paper, we present a methodology for analyzing the economic benefits in the U.S. of changes in drought frequency and severity due to global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. We construct reduced-form models of the effect of drought on agriculture and reservoir recreation in the contiguous U.S. and apply these relationships to drought projections based on two climate stabilization scenarios and two 21st century time periods. Drought indices are sector-specific and include both the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We find that the modeled regional effects of drought on each sector are negative, almost always statistically significant, and often large in magnitude, confirming that drought has been an important driver of historical reductions in economic activity in these sectors. Comparing a reference climate scenario to two GHG mitigation scenarios in 2050 and 2100, we find that mitigation reduces both drought incidence and damages.