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Development and Practical Application of Petroleum and Dispersant Interspecies Correlation Models for Aquatic Species
Citation:
Bejarano, A. AND M. Barron. Development and Practical Application of Petroleum and Dispersant Interspecies Correlation Models for Aquatic Species. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Indianapolis, IN, 48(8):4564-4572, (2014).
Impact/Purpose:
Manuscript that develops ICE models for oil and dispersants
Description:
Assessing the acute toxicity of physically and chemically dispersed oil following an oil spill has generally relied on existing toxicological data for a relatively limited number of aquatic species. Recognition of differences in species sensitivities to contaminants has facilitated the development of interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models. These models are mathematical relationships that can be used to estimate toxicity to a diversity of taxa based on the known toxicity value for a surrogate species. ICE models were developed for petroleum and dispersant products to facilitate the prediction of toxicity values to a broader range of species. A total of 93 petroleum ICE models for 29 surrogate species, and 16 dispersant ICE models for 7 surrogate species were statistically significant. These models had an adjusted coefficient of determination (adj-R2) ranging from 0.29 and 1, a Mean Square Error (MSE) ranging from 0.0002 to 0.311, and a positive slope ranging from 0.187 to 2.665. Model cross-validation showed that predicted toxicity values for most petroleum and dispersant ICE models (>90%) were within 5-fold of the observed values. A comparison between Hazard Concentrations (HC) from empirical and ICE-based Species Sensitivity Distributions (SSDs) showed that these values were within the same order of magnitude of each other, verifying the potential use of this approach in oil spill response and preparedness efforts.
