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Eco-Evo PVAs: Incorporating Eco-Evolutionary Processes into Population Viability Models
Citation:
Pierson, J., S. Beissinger, J. Bragg, D. Coats, R. Frankham, J. Oostermeijer, P. Sunnucks, N. Schumaker, M. Trotter, AND A. Young. Eco-Evo PVAs: Incorporating Eco-Evolutionary Processes into Population Viability Models. Presented at Society for Conservation Biology, North America Congress for Conservation Biology, Missoula, MT, July 13 - 16, 2014.
Impact/Purpose:
The EPA Office of Pesticide Products regulates pesticides, and pesticide impacts on non-target organisms are one criteria that is weighed when regulatory decisions are made. But pesticides can impact legally protected species, and in these cases a chemical’s effects on population viability become a concern. Population viability analysis (PVA) models are widely used to forecast population trends and viability into the future. However, this class of models has typically not addressed genetic concerns, such as inbreeding, that are particularly important in small populations. This short presentation will describe improvement being made to PVA models through the addition of population genetics, that allow researchers to address real-world population viability concerns that would otherwise be ignored.
Description:
We synthesize how advances in computational methods and population genomics can be combined within an Ecological-Evolutionary (Eco-Evo) PVA model. Eco-Evo PVA models are powerful new tools for understanding the influence of evolutionary processes on plant and animal population persistence. The need to manage for climate change and other dynamic disturbance regimes is creating a demand for Eco-Evo PVAs, which can evaluate the roles of adaptive potential and locally adapted traits on plant and animal population persistence. We develop the conceptual basis of an Eco-Evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects. We also provide a hypothetical example of an Eco-Evo PVA that explores the combined effects of inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression, local adaptation and genetic rescue on small populations. We then outline how the genomics revolution can improve parameter estimation for PVA models.