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Mechanistic models as a transferable framework for projecting effects of habitat change on production and delivery of ecosystem services
Citation:
Fulford, R., M. Russell, D. Yoskowitz, AND Johne Rogers. Mechanistic models as a transferable framework for projecting effects of habitat change on production and delivery of ecosystem services. Presented at CERF 2013, San Diego, CA, November 03 - 07, 2013.
Impact/Purpose:
Describe the use of mechanistic simulation models as a transferable tool for assessing impacts of habitat change in coastal ecosystems.
Description:
Drawing a link between habitat change and the production and delivery of ecosystem services is a priority in coastal estuarine ecosystems. Mechanistic modeling tools are highly functional for exploring this link because they allow for the synthesis of multiple ecological and behavioral dynamics. We have developed a spatially-explicit individual-based model to explore the link between coastal habitat change and both the production and delivery of recreational fishing opportunities to anglers. This model tracks growth, mortality, and movement of individual fish based on both temporally and spatially dynamic habitat characteristics and translates the outcome into a projection of annual net fish production. The model also tracks angler behavior and distribution as a function of habitat features and allows for a projection of fish-angler interactions and outcomes of recreational fishing. This model has been applied in two Gulf of Mexico estuaries (Pascagoula river and Tampa Bay) to address two unique stressors of estuarine habitat (Sea level rise [SLR] and impacts of landuse change) to examine the influence of mechanistic assumptions on delivery outcomes. Habitat effects of SLR were predicted with the SLAMM model and effects of projected landuse change on seagrass distribution was predicted based on hindcasting. Findings demonstrate transferability of the model framework between ecosystems and stressors based on reasonable performance of model versions parameterized for each case. In addition, simulation results suggest that the link between climatic and anthropogenic stressors related to local decision making, such as landuse change, and fishery health are dependent on behavioral responses, as well as specific habitat alterations. Mechanistic models are data intensive but valuable tools for projecting the impacts of estuarine habitat change. They are more easily transferred between systems and are not as dependent on empirically derived relationships.