You are here:
Modeling the Effects of Temperature on Ozone-Related Mortality
Citation:
Wilson, A., A. Rappold, L. Neas, AND B. Reich. Modeling the Effects of Temperature on Ozone-Related Mortality. Presented at Joint Statistical Meeting, Montreal, CANADA, August 03 - 08, 2013.
Impact/Purpose:
This is a presentation of the model for evaluating synergistic and additive effects of Ozone and temperature.
Description:
Studies show ozone and temperature are associated with increased mortality; however, the joint effects are not well characterized. Understanding this relationship is important for estimating the potential effects of climate change on ozone-related mortality. We extend the ozone risk model from National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) to include an ozone-temperature risk surface. At the second stage we use a spatial process on the spline coefficients and introduce a monotonicity constraint in the ozone direction. The proposed model allows for a different number of basis functions to be used in each city, enabling smoothing over cities with different ozone and temperature ranges while avoiding overparameterizing the first-stage models. Our method is computationally simple and provides closed form statistical summaries of the risk surface. By spatially smoothing, our model improves estimation of the high-temperature-high-ozone risk surface. Using the NMMAPS data we estimate the risk surfaces for 95 US urban centers and explore the potential effect of changes in temperature on ozone-related mortality.