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Gulf of Mexico dissolved oxygen model (GoMDOM) research and quality assurance project plan
Citation:
Pauer, J., T. Feist, A. Anstead, W. Melendez, R. Kreis, AND K. Rygwelski. Gulf of Mexico dissolved oxygen model (GoMDOM) research and quality assurance project plan. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R/13/073, 2012.
Impact/Purpose:
Over-enrichment of waterways by nutrients is a national and global issue and has subsequent effects on freshwater, brackish, and marine systems. One of the symptoms of nutrient enrichment is hypoxia, such as that observed in the Gulf of Mexico and is one of the largest hypoxia zones observed on a worldwide basis. It is incumbent on water quality managers to protect and to identify appropriate management strategies to mitigate the impacts of nutrient stressors. In the following research and quality assurance project plan, we provide a modeling and forecasting approach which will aid managers in the decision-making process for abating hypoxia impacts to the Gulf of Mexico.
Description:
An integrated high resolution mathematical modeling framework is being developed that will link hydrodynamic, atmospheric, and water quality models for the northern Gulf of Mexico. This Research and Quality Assurance Project Plan primarily focuses on the deterministic Gulf of Mexico Dissolved Oxygen Model (GoMDOM). The GoMDOM models are similar in that they all are derived from the LM3 Eutrophication model developed for Lake Michigan, but they differ in spatial resolution and/or application. The other models are described only for the purposes of understanding their inputs and linkages to the GoMDOM models. The GoMDOM models are based on mass-balance principles and integrates multimedia nutrient inputs (primarily from the atmosphere and the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers) and ecosystem dynamics to establish a forecasting capability for exploring management options to reduce the hypoxia zone. The GoMDOM models consist of a coupled (eutrophication/dissolved oxygen (DO) and sediment) water quality model that is linked to an atmospheric model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ)) model and are driven by a linked hydrodynamics model (EPACOM). The GoMDOM model framework will be calibrated and confirmed using cruise data (2003 2007) specifically collected for the modeling effort along with other evaluated project and non-project data. Uncertainty, sensitivity, and other statistical analyses will be performed to estimate the accuracy of the water quality model predictions. Finally, the 6km x 6 km gridded GoMDOM model will be applied to estimate the impact of several nutrient reduction scenarios on Gulf hypoxia, including the allowable nutrient loads that would reduce the five-year running average areal extent of the hypoxic zone to less than 5,000 km2 by 2015. This effort will assist managers in formulating a strategy to achieve the goals specified in the Gulf of Mexico Action Plan.