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Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis
Citation:
Golden, H., C. Knightes, P. Conrads, T. Feaster, G. Davis, S. Benedict, AND P. Bradley. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY. Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Pensacola, FL, 32(9):2165-2174, (2013).
Impact/Purpose:
For publication in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
Description:
Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. We apply an ensemble of watershed models to simulate and assess the responses of hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to two climate change projections in the US Coastal Plain. Simulations are conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions. Based on downscaled inputs from two global circulation models, we estimate a net decrease in average annual HgT fluxes in response to climate change in the study watershed; however, average monthly HgT fluxes increase during the summer, when both HgT concentrations and flow are high. Precipitation and temperature appear to be drivers of watershed runoff and HgT flux responses. Our multiple watershed model approach illustrates the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections by capturing a greater range of Hg export than predicted by single model applications.
