EPA Science Inventory

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

Citation:

Burns, S., W. Kepner, G. Sidman, D. Goodrich, D. Guertin, L. Levick, W. Yee, M. Scianni, C. Meek, AND J. Vollmer. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-13/074, 2013.

Description:

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. Future growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and describe a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present initial results from the application of the methodology to evaluate water scenario analyses related to a baseline condition and forecasted changes, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis for the San Pedro River Basin, an arid international watershed on the U.S./Mexico border.

Purpose/Objective:

This work provides environmental protection managers and practitioners with an ability to integrate the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) hydrologic modeling and watershed assessment tool with the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. Future growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100 using ICLUS future housing density maps adapted from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States.

URLs/Downloads:

KEPNER ORD-004336 FINAL PUBLISHED REPORT..PDF   (PDF,NA pp, 1424.935 KB,  about PDF)

Record Details:

Record Type: DOCUMENT (PUBLISHED REPORT/REPORT)
Start Date: 06/24/2013
Completion Date: 06/24/2013
Record Last Revised: 07/01/2013
Record Created: 06/24/2013
Record Released: 06/24/2013
OMB Category: Other
Record ID: 256962

Organization:

U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

NATIONAL EXPOSURE RESEARCH LAB

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES DIVISION

LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY BRANCH