EPA Science Inventory

Predicting Change in Eelgrass Distribution Due to Sea Level Rise

Citation:

Clinton, Pat, M. Frazier, L. McCoy, D. Reusser, AND H. Lee. Predicting Change in Eelgrass Distribution Due to Sea Level Rise. Presented at Central Oregon Coast Geospatial Statistics Symposium - 2013, Newport, OR, May 31, 2013.

Description:

The eelgrass species Zostera marina is the dominant estuarine seagrass on the Pacific Northwest coast of North America and provides important ecosystem services and functions. The loss of eelgrass bed acreage due to environmental pressures is of world-wide concern, yet predicted spatial redistribution of intertidal eelgrass beds under climate change induced sea-level rise is largely unexplored through spatially explicit modeling. Here, we construct a model predicting the spatial redistribution of the intertidal eelgrass Zostera marina under varying sea-level rise scenarios in three estuaries on the Oregon coast using ArcGis tools. Using remarkably few spatial datasets, the model exploits known relationships between eelgrass and physical constraints to bed expansion to provide coefficients to a predictive regression. At this stage of development, the model dubbed BATHTUB (Bathymetry Affecting Tidal Habitats Toward Upland Boundaries) explores only the effects of bathymetric changes and not other climate change induced effects in temperature, salinity or precipitation.

Purpose/Objective:

Both sea-level rise and loss of eelgrass beds are of world wide concern. PCEB has constructed an ArcGIS model to predict change in eelgrass distribution under varying sea level rise scenarios. At this stage of development,the model explores only the effects of bathymetric level changes and not other climate change induced effects that might include changes in temperature, salinity or precipitation.

URLs/Downloads:

ABSTRACT - CLINTON.PDF   (PDF,NA pp, 40.977 KB,  about PDF)

Record Details:

Record Type: DOCUMENT (PRESENTATION/ABSTRACT)
Completion Date: 06/10/2013
Record Last Revised: 06/10/2013
Record Created: 06/10/2013
Record Released: 06/10/2013
OMB Category: Other
Record ID: 256511

Organization:

U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

NATIONAL HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS RESEARCH LAB

WESTERN ECOLOGY DIVISION

PACIFIC COASTAL ECOLOGY BRANCH