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Public Health Impacts of Secondary Particulate Formation from Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Gasoline
Citation:
von Stackelberg, K., J. Buonocorel, P. Bhave, AND J. Schwartz. Public Health Impacts of Secondary Particulate Formation from Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Gasoline. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH. Academic Press Incorporated, Orlando, FL, 12(19):1-13, (2013).
Impact/Purpose:
The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′s)Atmospheric Modeling Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA′s mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD′s research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the Nation′s air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollution problem, but also in developing emission control policies and regulations for air quality improvements.
Description:
Background: Aromatic hydrocarbons emitted from gasoline‐powered vehicles contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), which increases the atmospheric mass concentration of fine particles (PM2.5). Here we estimate the public health burden associated with exposures to the subset of PM2.5 that originates from vehicle emissions of aromatics under business as usual conditions. Methods: The PM2.5 contribution from gasoline aromatics is estimated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system and the results are compared to ambient measurements from the literature. Marginal PM2.5 annualized concentration changes are used to calculate premature mortalities using concentration‐response functions, with a value of mortality reduction approach used to monetize the social cost of mortality impacts. Morbidity impacts are qualitatively discussed. Results: Modeled aromatic SOA concentrations from CMAQ fall short of ambient measurements by approximately a factor of two nationwide, with strong regional differences. After accounting for this model bias, the estimated public health impacts from exposure to PM2.5originating from aromatic hydrocarbons in gasoline lead to a central estimate of approximately 3800 predicted premature mortalities nationwide, with best estimates ranging from 1800 to over 4700 depending on the specific concentration‐response function used. These impacts are associated with total social costs of $28.2B,and range from $13.6B to $34.9B in 2006$. Conclusions: These preliminary quantitative estimate indicates particulates from vehicular emissions of aromatic hydrocarbons demonstrate a nontrivial public health burden. The results provide a baseline from which to evaluate potential public health impacts of changes in gaseoline composition. Keywords: Aromatic hydrocarbons, Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), Secondary particulate, Social cost, Gasoline
URLs/Downloads:
MANUSCRIPTBODY FINAL FINAL .PDF (PDF, NA pp, 254.349 KB, about PDF)Environmental Health
