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UP OR OUT: MEASURING AND MODELING THE GROWTH OF CHINA’S BUILT ENVIRONMENT
Impact/Purpose:
Are China’s cities growing up or out? Designed to investigate the drivers and impacts of urban form in the context of rapid urbanization, this project will: (1) integrate satellite remote sensing and census observations to develop a spatially explicit, national model of urban growth in China; and (2) examine the economic drivers of urban spatial structure across urban China with an emphasis on identifying the impacts of land market constraints and regulatory policies. Given proper identification of the mechanisms driving urban spatial structure, this research seeks ultimately to project future trends in urban development and evaluate the relationship between urban form and emissions in China’s residential building and transportation sectors.
Description:
Enormous population and income increases in China’s urban centers are expected drive the built environment both upward and outward. However, the density of urban development is expected to vary considerably across regions, particularly in the context of heterogeneous land markets. To the extent that land conservation policy and land market controls constrain the conversion of urban land in rapidly expanding metropolitan regions, these policies may lead the development of less compact and more dispersed urban centers.
Potential to Further Environmental/Human Health Protection
Although there is broad interest in facilitating smart urban growth, a more comprehensive set of empirical results identifying the drivers and impacts of urban spatial structure is necessary for evaluating and negotiating trade-offs at the intersection of urban development and environmental policy. This project will contribute to regional modeling efforts and sustainable urban growth policy, focusing on outcomes in the most rapidly urbanizing nation on Earth. The multidisciplinary research framework employed in this project allows for the consistent analysis of urban form across a large sample of cities, providing generalizable insights into the pathways to a low carbon future in urbanizing regions.