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Tidal Mixing Box Submodel for Tampa Bay: Calibration of Tidal Exchange Flows with the Parameter Estimation Tool (PEST)
Citation:
Rogers, J. AND M. Russell. Tidal Mixing Box Submodel for Tampa Bay: Calibration of Tidal Exchange Flows with the Parameter Estimation Tool (PEST). Presented at ASLO 2013 Aquatic Sciences Meeting, February 17 - 22, 2013.
Impact/Purpose:
A critical point in developing system dynamics models is the calibration of parameters within the model. The presentation will describe the use of a parameter estimation tool (PEST) for a tidal mixing submodel.
Description:
In the mid-1990s the Tampa Bay Estuary Program proposed a nutrient reduction strategy focused on improving water clarity to promote seagrass expansion within Tampa Bay. A System Dynamics Model is being developed to evaluate spatially and temporally explicit impacts of nutrient reduction strategies for sustainable seagrass communities and related ecosystem services. The model incorporates seagrass growth, nutrient cycling, irradiance, algal growth and tidal mixing submodels. The tidal mixing submodel, which is based on the box model concept, is the foundation for all other submodels. Therefore, careful calibration of tidal mixing exchange flows is key to reducing uncertainty of the overall model. A simple but effective method is presented for calibrating tidal exchange flows using salinity as a conservative measure. The method utilizes an object-based system dynamics modeling tool. Calibration is conducted through a menu driven parameter estimation tool (PEST) that has been incorporated directly into the software. PEST uses a regularized inversion process appropriate for simultaneously calibrating a large number of parameters. Calibration was conducted using average monthly salinities from 1985-1991. Average monthly salinities from 1992-1994 were used for validation.