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EXTREME AIR QUALITV EVENTS USING A HIERARCHY OF MODELS: PRESENT AND FUTURE
Impact/Purpose:
The sensitivity of mean and extreme pollutant concentrations to changes in emissions and climate is likely to differ. Here we will focus on an evaluation of understanding extreme pollution events under a changing climate. The specific objectives are: (i) develop extreme value models based on measurements and model simulations of the past few decades where frequent measurements are available; (ii) apply extreme value theory to simulations of future climate conditions and future emission scenarios; (iii) investigate the relationship and feedbacks between extreme pollution events and heat waves, and the importance of biomass burning to extreme pollution events; (iv) evaluate the impact of adding stochastic parameterizations to improve model simulations of extreme events; (v) develop surrogate models of extreme events.
Description:
The outcome of this work will provide insights to the air-quality planning community on the probability, frequency, duration, and severity of high pollution episodes over the U.S. in relation to changes in emissions and climate. In particular, we will: (i) provide information on the geographic, meteorological, climatological, and chemical conditions that contribute to extreme pollution episodes in the U.S.; (ii) enhance current air quality models to better capture changes in extreme pollution events in different regions of the country.