COMBINING CLIMATE MODEL PREDICTIONS, HYDROLOGICAL MODELING, AND ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING ALGORITHMS TO PREDICT THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AQUATIC BIODIVERSITY
Impact/Purpose:
The primary objective of this research is to predict the
impacts of climate change on aquatic biodiversity in United States river drainages.
Global climate models will be integrated with a landscape hydrologic model and an
ecological niche modeling algorithm to test three general hypotheses: 1) Climate data,
when integrated with landscape hydrologic models, can accurately predict variation in
current and future flow regimes in United States river drainages; 2) Ecological niche
modeling algorithms, when used in conjunction with hydrologic model outputs and
species distribution data, can accurately predict current and future distributions of
aquatic taxa; and 3) Predicted changes in climate will differentially impact aquatic taxa,
with some species experiencing decreases in future habitat availability while other
species experience increases in the amount of available habitat.
Description:
The results of this research will provide a broad taxonomic
and regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on aquatic species in the
United States by producing predictions of current and future habitat quality for aquatic
taxa based on multiple climate change scenarios. The results will address key
questions detailed in the program announcement including: 1) What are the potential
impacts of climate change on streamflow regimes in different regions of the United
States, and how will these changes affect aquatic ecosystems; and 2) How will climate
change influence the availability of suitable aquatic habitat for vulnerable species?
Record Details:
Record Type:PROJECT(
ABSTRACT
)
Start Date:08/01/2009
Completion Date:07/31/2011
Record ID:
251001
Keywords:
WATERSHEDS, ECOLOGY, HYDROLOGY, GIS, GEOGRAPHY,
Related Organizations:
Role
:OWNER
Organization Name
:SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY - MAIN CAMPUS
Mailing Address
:221 N Grand Blvd
Citation
:St Louis
State
:MO
Zip Code
:63103
Project Information:
Approach
:The objectives of this research will be achieved by
integrating data derived from three regionally downscaled global climate models with
the landscape-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to
predict changes in flow characteristics and water temperatures in United States river
drainages based on climate change scenarios. These hydrologic data will then be used
to predict the potential impacts of climate change on distributions of a variety of
taxonomic groups, including fishes, crayfishes, and mollusks, in Illinois and Alabama
using a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent). Illinois and
Alabama support relatively high levels of biodiversity and threatened species and there
is also an unusually robust amount of species locality data available for these states. In
this study, these areas will serve as models to understand the potential impacts of
climate change on aquatic communities in the coming decades. The impact of climate
change on fishes will be similarly assessed in five major river drainages in different
regions of the United States. The predicted changes in hydrologic characteristics in
each region will be integrated with freshwater fish species distribution data to predict the
response of these species to changes in climate and assess potential regional
differences in biodiversity impacts based on climate change scenarios.
Cost
:$246,147.00
Research Component
:Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Approach
:The objectives of this research will be achieved by
integrating data derived from three regionally downscaled global climate models with
the landscape-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to
predict changes in flow characteristics and water temperatures in United States river
drainages based on climate change scenarios. These hydrologic data will then be used
to predict the potential impacts of climate change on distributions of a variety of
taxonomic groups, including fishes, crayfishes, and mollusks, in Illinois and Alabama
using a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent). Illinois and
Alabama support relatively high levels of biodiversity and threatened species and there
is also an unusually robust amount of species locality data available for these states. In
this study, these areas will serve as models to understand the potential impacts of
climate change on aquatic communities in the coming decades. The impact of climate
change on fishes will be similarly assessed in five major river drainages in different
regions of the United States. The predicted changes in hydrologic characteristics in
each region will be integrated with freshwater fish species distribution data to predict the
response of these species to changes in climate and assess potential regional
differences in biodiversity impacts based on climate change scenarios.
Cost
:$246,147.00
Research Component
:Global Climate Change
Approach
:The objectives of this research will be achieved by
integrating data derived from three regionally downscaled global climate models with
the landscape-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to
predict changes in flow characteristics and water temperatures in United States river
drainages based on climate change scenarios. These hydrologic data will then be used
to predict the potential impacts of climate change on distributions of a variety of
taxonomic groups, including fishes, crayfishes, and mollusks, in Illinois and Alabama
using a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent). Illinois and
Alabama support relatively high levels of biodiversity and threatened species and there
is also an unusually robust amount of species locality data available for these states. In
this study, these areas will serve as models to understand the potential impacts of
climate change on aquatic communities in the coming decades. The impact of climate
change on fishes will be similarly assessed in five major river drainages in different
regions of the United States. The predicted changes in hydrologic characteristics in
each region will be integrated with freshwater fish species distribution data to predict the
response of these species to changes in climate and assess potential regional
differences in biodiversity impacts based on climate change scenarios.
Cost
:$246,147.00
Research Component
:Water and Watersheds
Project IDs:
ID Code
:R834195
Project type
:EPA Grant