Impact/Purpose:

The primary objective of this research is to predict the impacts of climate change on aquatic biodiversity in United States river drainages. Global climate models will be integrated with a landscape hydrologic model and an ecological niche modeling algorithm to test three general hypotheses: 1) Climate data, when integrated with landscape hydrologic models, can accurately predict variation in current and future flow regimes in United States river drainages; 2) Ecological niche modeling algorithms, when used in conjunction with hydrologic model outputs and species distribution data, can accurately predict current and future distributions of aquatic taxa; and 3) Predicted changes in climate will differentially impact aquatic taxa, with some species experiencing decreases in future habitat availability while other species experience increases in the amount of available habitat.

Description:

The results of this research will provide a broad taxonomic and regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on aquatic species in the United States by producing predictions of current and future habitat quality for aquatic taxa based on multiple climate change scenarios. The results will address key questions detailed in the program announcement including: 1) What are the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow regimes in different regions of the United States, and how will these changes affect aquatic ecosystems; and 2) How will climate change influence the availability of suitable aquatic habitat for vulnerable species?

URLs/Downloads:

2011 Progress Report

2010 Progress Report

Record Details:

Record Type:PROJECT( ABSTRACT )

Start Date:08/01/2009

Completion Date:07/31/2011

Record ID: 251001

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Related Organizations:

Role :OWNER

Organization Name :SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY - MAIN CAMPUS

Mailing Address :221 N Grand Blvd

Citation :St Louis

State :MO

Zip Code :63103

Project Information:

Approach :

The objectives of this research will be achieved by integrating data derived from three regionally downscaled global climate models with the landscape-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to predict changes in flow characteristics and water temperatures in United States river drainages based on climate change scenarios. These hydrologic data will then be used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on distributions of a variety of taxonomic groups, including fishes, crayfishes, and mollusks, in Illinois and Alabama using a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent). Illinois and Alabama support relatively high levels of biodiversity and threatened species and there is also an unusually robust amount of species locality data available for these states. In this study, these areas will serve as models to understand the potential impacts of climate change on aquatic communities in the coming decades. The impact of climate change on fishes will be similarly assessed in five major river drainages in different regions of the United States. The predicted changes in hydrologic characteristics in each region will be integrated with freshwater fish species distribution data to predict the response of these species to changes in climate and assess potential regional differences in biodiversity impacts based on climate change scenarios.

Cost :$246,147.00

Research Component :Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration

Approach :

The objectives of this research will be achieved by integrating data derived from three regionally downscaled global climate models with the landscape-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to predict changes in flow characteristics and water temperatures in United States river drainages based on climate change scenarios. These hydrologic data will then be used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on distributions of a variety of taxonomic groups, including fishes, crayfishes, and mollusks, in Illinois and Alabama using a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent). Illinois and Alabama support relatively high levels of biodiversity and threatened species and there is also an unusually robust amount of species locality data available for these states. In this study, these areas will serve as models to understand the potential impacts of climate change on aquatic communities in the coming decades. The impact of climate change on fishes will be similarly assessed in five major river drainages in different regions of the United States. The predicted changes in hydrologic characteristics in each region will be integrated with freshwater fish species distribution data to predict the response of these species to changes in climate and assess potential regional differences in biodiversity impacts based on climate change scenarios.

Cost :$246,147.00

Research Component :Global Climate Change

Approach :

The objectives of this research will be achieved by integrating data derived from three regionally downscaled global climate models with the landscape-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to predict changes in flow characteristics and water temperatures in United States river drainages based on climate change scenarios. These hydrologic data will then be used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on distributions of a variety of taxonomic groups, including fishes, crayfishes, and mollusks, in Illinois and Alabama using a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent). Illinois and Alabama support relatively high levels of biodiversity and threatened species and there is also an unusually robust amount of species locality data available for these states. In this study, these areas will serve as models to understand the potential impacts of climate change on aquatic communities in the coming decades. The impact of climate change on fishes will be similarly assessed in five major river drainages in different regions of the United States. The predicted changes in hydrologic characteristics in each region will be integrated with freshwater fish species distribution data to predict the response of these species to changes in climate and assess potential regional differences in biodiversity impacts based on climate change scenarios.

Cost :$246,147.00

Research Component :Water and Watersheds

Project IDs:

ID Code :R834195

Project type :EPA Grant