Impact/Purpose:

Actions to reduce emissions of GHGs will affect air quality directly through reductions in emissions of co-emitted air pollutants, and indirectly through changes in global climate.  Research on the effects of climate change on air quality has emphasized meteorological downscaling to translate future climate change from general circulation models (GCMs) to a regional scale.  Here we propose to emphasize methods of chemical downscaling, in which future climate and pollutant emissions will be simulated in a global CTM, to provide initial and boundary conditions for a US-focused regional CTM.  We use these methods to address the air quality co-benefits of actions to reduce GHG emissions, both globally and in the US, by analyzing the mitigation of methane emissions and the control of GHGs generally, in future scenarios to 2050.

Description:

The proposed research will use a combination of global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) to analyze the co-benefits of actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on air quality, globally and in the US.

URLs/Downloads:

2012 Progress Report

Final Progress Report

2009 Progress Report

2011 Progress Report

Record Details:

Record Type:PROJECT( ABSTRACT )

Start Date:09/01/2009

Completion Date:08/31/2013

Record ID: 249555

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Related Organizations:

Role :OWNER

Organization Name :UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHAPEL HILL

Mailing Address :103 S Bldg Cb 9100

Citation :Chapel Hill

State :NC

Zip Code :27599

Project Information:

Approach :

While global models have simulated the dependence of global ozone concentrations on methane emissions, the effect of these background changes in urban areas is unknown.  We propose to use a system of models to address the effects of global methane mitigation on ozone air quality globally and in the US at fine resolution, under future climate conditions to 2050.  The system of models will include the global CTM MOZART-4, and a regional meteorological model (WRF) and CTM (CMAQ) focused on the US, with future climate conditions from a global GCM.  Second, we propose to conduct the first model-based analysis of the global co-benefits of actions to reduce GHG emissions on ozone and particulate matter air quality, and the first assessment of co-benefits due to both changes in co-emitted air pollutants and changes in climate.  We will use the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and work with an energy-economics modeler on our team, such that scenarios to 2050 of air pollutant emissions are fully consistent with projected global actions to reduce GHGs.  We will use results of a global GCM to give future climate conditions under these scenarios, and this will drive our system of global and regional models to assess air quality co-benefits globally and downscaled for greater resolution in the US.  We will also analyze the relative importance of GHG mitigation within versus outside of the US, and of changes in co-emitted air pollutants versus changes in climate.

Cost :$300,000.00

Research Component :Global Climate Change

Approach :

While global models have simulated the dependence of global ozone concentrations on methane emissions, the effect of these background changes in urban areas is unknown.  We propose to use a system of models to address the effects of global methane mitigation on ozone air quality globally and in the US at fine resolution, under future climate conditions to 2050.  The system of models will include the global CTM MOZART-4, and a regional meteorological model (WRF) and CTM (CMAQ) focused on the US, with future climate conditions from a global GCM.  Second, we propose to conduct the first model-based analysis of the global co-benefits of actions to reduce GHG emissions on ozone and particulate matter air quality, and the first assessment of co-benefits due to both changes in co-emitted air pollutants and changes in climate.  We will use the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and work with an energy-economics modeler on our team, such that scenarios to 2050 of air pollutant emissions are fully consistent with projected global actions to reduce GHGs.  We will use results of a global GCM to give future climate conditions under these scenarios, and this will drive our system of global and regional models to assess air quality co-benefits globally and downscaled for greater resolution in the US.  We will also analyze the relative importance of GHG mitigation within versus outside of the US, and of changes in co-emitted air pollutants versus changes in climate.

Cost :$300,000.00

Research Component :Air Quality and Air Toxics

Project IDs:

ID Code :R834285

Project type :EPA Grant